The News Not Noise Letter: The War on a Razor’s Edge
Will there be a ceasefire or renewed hostilities? Plus: commencement conundrums, bird flu warnings and sign up for a Zoom with Jessica.
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Hello and happy Monday.
I gotta say I’m shocked watching cable news today. The shows are so transfixed by every utterance in the Trump trial that you might not know that a ceasefire in the Middle East hangs in the balance today. That is the focus of much of our newsletter.
Before we get into it, a note: some of the language and symbolism we use here will be unsatisfying or possibly offensive to some of you. We are not trying to minimize any actions, downplay their impact or endorse any particular choices. Instead, we’re conscious of the fact that we are one of the few places where people who have differing views are getting shared information about this war. We’re doing our best to keep it that way. That means we will work to use neutral language when describing news events, rather than ascribing value with loaded or disputed adjectives. It’s my hope that this will allow all of us to operate off a shared set of facts. Then we can disagree from there. We are working to preserve the common ground we have.
At the end of the newsletter we also bring you updates on that Trump trial (only the parts you actually need to know, not his every facial expression…), plus a touch more news and some fun noise.
Finally, for those of you who are feeling extremely stressed out by the news, you’re not alone. I’m sharing some of the tips and tools I’ve learned to manage my news anxiety over the years. Here’s a video with one helpful technique to start.
Israel/Hamas War
Today confusion, celebration, and concern in Gaza and Israel after conflicting reports that a ceasefire deal had been reached and/but Israel was also beginning a military operation in Rafah. Asked about all this, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said, “I don't know that it gets any more sensitive than right now.” So what’s going on?
Hamas Accepts a Deal Israel Didn’t Offer: Monday, US and global news organizations reported that Hamas had accepted a ceasefire deal that had been offered by Egypt and Qatar. Photos began to circulate showing Gazans celebrating.
Not a Deal: Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office quickly disputed the reports, saying Israel was not party to this offer which, after a review, he described as “far from Israel's necessary requirements” and which his chief rival Benny Gantz said “does not correspond” to the dialogue to date. Among the problem areas, reports suggest the proposal calls for an immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, no Israeli oversight of which Gazans are returning north, and a permanent end to the war.
Rafah Operation: With no agreement in place Israeli officials say they are moving ahead with a ground operation in Rafah. This morning Palestinians in Eastern Rafah got leaflets ordering them to relocate to a coastal town, Al-Mawasi, with an “expanded humanitarian area.” And CNN reports Israel has begun what it called “precision strikes” in the area. An IDF spokesman said the assault would be targeted and not “wide-scale.”
How We Got Here: For months, Israel held back on a Rafah offensive while the US, Qatar, and Egypt worked to reach a compromise ceasefire-for-hostage deal. A week ago Israel agreed to new concessions which the US described as “extraordinarily generous.” The new deal was presented to Hamas. After a week of waiting, Hamas rejected that deal over the weekend. Hamas then bombed an aid crossing killing Israeli soldiers – and in response, Israel announced it would be launching the Rafah offensive.
Rafah Trap: Prime Minister Netanyahu says that Hamas commanders are hiding out in Rafah with the remaining living hostages and must be targeted to end the war. Israel’s international allies have pressured Israel to avoid a Rafah offensive because more than 1 million Palestinians are sheltering there and they fear the deadly consequences. Saudi Arabia and Egypt warned of grave humanitarian risks.
What’s Next: Hostage families blockaded a highway in Tel Aviv imploring Netanyahu to hold off on a Rafah offensive and get their family members home. President Biden spoke with the Prime Minister today — after withholding a delivery of ammunition to Israel, seemingly to pressure Netanyahu. (This is the first time the US has paused military shipments to Israel since the war began.) CIA Director Bill Burns is in the Middle East right now, trying to reach a deal. And Israel says it is sending a delegation to Cairo to continue negotiations.
Also Know:
Aid: The US Defense Department says the floating aid pier for Gaza is over halfway complete, and the White House says Netanyahu agreed to reopen the Kerem Shalom crossing for humanitarian aid delivery. The director of the World Food Programme says there is “full-blown famine” in northern Gaza and “it’s moving its way south.”
Allies: In a speech marking Holocaust Remembrance Day, Netanyahu said Israel “will stand alone” if it must, but that the fight against Hamas will go on.
Media: PM Netanyahu and his cabinet also shut down Al Jazeera’s operations in Israel.
US Campuses’ Commencement Challenges
While the situation changes rapidly in the Middle East, tensions remain inflamed on US college campuses. After weeks of tense protests, campuses are facing big decisions about how to hold graduation ceremonies without making national headlines:
Over the weekend, pro-Palestine protesters briefly disrupted ceremonies at the University of Michigan before police escorted them away; others in the crowd drowned out their protest with chants of “USA! USA!”
At Northeastern University’s commencement, one protester ran on stage waving his hands covered in fake blood (more on that symbolism here) before being arrested.
Students at Indiana University walked out of commencement ceremonies as a plane flew overhead displaying a banner reading “let Gaza live” with a Palestinian flag.
Other universities are looking to avoid similar demonstrations, taking different approaches. Here’s a sample:
Columbia University: Columbia canceled its main commencement event due to “insurmountable” “security conditions.” Smaller school-level or departmental ceremonies will still take place.
Harvard University: Harvard’s interim president warned the campus will break up the protest encampment and threatened to suspend students who “perpetuate its continuation,” citing the disruption to Harvard’s “educational activities and operations.”
Emory University: Emory relocated its commencement ceremony from its main Atlanta campus to the nearby suburb of Duluth, Georgia out of safety concerns.
University of Vermont: The University of Vermont canceled its planned commencement address by US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield after students protested her selection.
Our Questions: We assume protests will die down when students leave campus for the summer. But one could imagine protests continuing, if the war ramps back up. And all sorts of outside actors have incentives to keep America angry and divided ahead of the election. So will we see major protests move off campus and into city centers over the summer? What about the political conventions and the presidential campaigns? How would a failure to reach a ceasefire deal shift opinion, and impact the delicate power dynamics in the Middle East?
Here are your other headlines:
Trump Trial Latest: The judge in former President Trump’s NY criminal case found Trump in contempt of court for violating his gag order again, fining Trump an additional $1,000 and threatening jail time if he continues to violate the order. Today jurors heard testimony from an ex-Trump Organization executive, Jeffrey McConney, who handled the payments from Trump to Michael Cohen that are at the core of this case. The jury also saw records of these payments – documents the prosecution says were illegally falsified.
Johnson Ouster: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene pledged to force a vote to oust Speaker Mike Johnson this week – but with the majority of the House GOP and support from the Dems, Johnson is expected to survive the vote.
Bird Flu in Cattle: Health officials are raising concerns about the growing threat of bird flu among dairy cattle. One in five samples of grocery store milk nationwide shows genetic traces of the virus. Right now this is not an immediate threat to human health, but it warrants proactive “close monitoring.” And the FDA says milk is safe to drink as long as it’s pasteurized. A Michigan agriculture official said, “From a human to animal health standpoint, now is not a good time to cuddle cows.” But on the bright side, the USDA says it hasn’t found any evidence of the bird flu virus in ground beef.
Keep reading: under the paywall we have some fun noise about the Met Gala and astronauts who are even braver than normal. And we want to remind you about:
Subscriber Zoom Thursday
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