A Cartel Shut Down Most of Mexico. The US Media Led With Weather.
Plus: Pure tariff chaos. Epstein's friends keep finding out. A Q&A with Council on Foreign Relations President Mike Froman. And for NTDS: Retired at 16. Gold medalist at 20. On her terms.
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I did not have “US triggers cartel war in Mexico” on my bingo card. And yet.
Over the weekend, cartel violence exploded across Mexico. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum eliminated El Mencho — the head of Mexico’s most powerful cartel. And his lieutenants responded with 250 roadblocks across 20 states. Buses burning on highways. Gunmen storming Guadalajara airport. Smoke columns rising above Puerto Vallarta while tourists sheltered in their hotels. This was not a turf skirmish. It was a cartel showing a government what happens when you come for the boss.
But it’s much bigger than a cartel war.
President Sheinbaum claimed she launched this operation independently, only with the assistance of US intelligence. The reality looks different, more like independence-with-an-asterisk. The message from the US is not subtle: take out the cartels or we will. And that is a window into what the Trump administration actually wants in this part of the world.
Washington’s goal here isn’t really drugs. It’s control. The administration wants to lock down this hemisphere — secure Mexico as a natural resource hub, block China from gaining a foothold in the region, and neutralize cartels as rival powers who answer to no one. Think of it as “Fortress North America.” The “War on Drugs” is really a war for regional order — a push to turn the continent into a synchronized, American-led industrial engine.
Over the weekend, that war escalated. We write about it below.
To even my surprise, this is getting almost no attention from national news in the USA. The New York media is leading with the snowstorm. To be fair, it looks brutal. East Coast friends, I’m sorry you are in it again. But I need someone to explain to me how 24 inches of snow outranks a military-grade battle on the border? This is the eternal blind spot of the Acela corridor: if it’s south of the border, it might as well be on another planet.
Because that’s not enough news, I also sat down with Mike Froman — president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Obama’s chief trade negotiator from 2013 to 2017, and one of the architects of the trade architecture Trump is now dismantling. We talk about what the Supreme Court ruling actually means for tariffs (spoiler: Trump still has plenty of tools), what the US is really after with Iran, and the strange new world order where the old multilateral rulebook is dead and countries are writing new rules in smaller groups. You can find Mike Froman’s Substack here. And find our conversation here:
Also in today’s newsletter: The Epstein files claim another high-ranking British scalp. Why a celebrity longevity doctor’s “JE withdrawal” ended his burgeoning career at CBS News. The US currently has more firepower in the Middle East than at any point since the Iraq invasion. So, what are we doing? Trump’s “tariff chaos” threatens to break the deals he already made. The President prepares for his State of the Union with approval ratings that have officially tanked.
And in News That Doesn’t Suck: Alysa Liu proves that taking a break isn’t quitting — it’s how you find the perspective to win.
Here Are Your Headlines
The New Generation: Mexican security forces on Sunday killed one of the world’s most powerful drug lords, setting off a wave of violence across the country — and they did it with US help. Their target: Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, or CJNG. It is one of Mexico’s most powerful and violent cartels. One former Mexican security official said “this is undoubtedly the most important blow that has been dealt to drug trafficking in Mexico since drug trafficking existed in Mexico.” Cartel henchmen reacted to their leader’s death by rampaging across the country, burning dozens of businesses, erecting hundreds of roadblocks across nearly 20 states, and killing dozens of people; amid the violence, schools and businesses closed, airlines cancelled flights, and thousands sheltered in place — leaving entire cities, including Guadalajara, Mexico’s second-largest, looking like ghost towns. But by Monday, Mexican authorities claimed to have restored calm. (We’ve heard from folks in Mexico who say the same.) President Claudia Sheinbaum insisted all roadblocks had been cleared and that authorities “have practically reinstated all activity.”
Come Home to Roost: Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho” and “El Señor de los Gallos” (The Lord of the Roosters), was Mexico’s most-wanted man. El Mencho founded CNJG from the ashes of another cartel, Milenio, when it disintegrated after its leadership was captured or killed. He built CNJG into a global criminal empire with over 15,000 members that was infamous for its brutality, attacking or assassinating politicians, judges, law enforcement officers, and countless civilians. A former DEA official said El Mencho “controlled everything, he was like a country’s dictator.” The US offered up to $15 million for information leading to his arrest, and the Trump administration in February 2025 designated CJNG a foreign terrorist organization.
Riches and Resources: CJNG made billions, in large part through the drug trade; it trafficked cocaine and was the world’s largest meth dealer. According to US officials, CJNG was entering the fentanyl market, historically controlled by its chief rival, the Sinaloa cartel. But drugs aren’t the cartel’s only business. Through huachicol, or large-scale fuel theft, CJNG runs a billion-dollar energy black market that siphons crude oil directly from state pipelines. This system undercuts legitimate energy companies and drains government coffers. The cartel also imposes a “parallel taxation system” on mining, extorting massive fees from companies extracting silver and lithium — strategic minerals Washington considers vital. And it makes money from kidnapping, logging, farming, smuggling migrants, and more. So you see why this is more than a drug war.
Rock and Hard Place: Trump has repeatedly threatened military action against cartels, saying he’d be “proud” to order it. But Mexican President Sheinbaum says he doesn’t need to, because she’s cracking down on cartels herself. It’s a reversal from her predecessor’s policy, which was literally called “hugs not bullets.” In December Sheinbaum’s government claimed it is arresting cartel members and destroying drug labs at four times the rate of the previous government. Sheinbaum didn’t do it alone. Last year she allowed the US military and CIA to substantially increase surveillance flights over Mexico. Both Mexican and US officials noted the anti-cartel operation over the weekend utilized US intelligence. Mexican journalists are questioning whether there wasn’t more US involvement. The former chief of international operations at the DEA said this latest operation sent “a strong message to Donald Trump’s administration that [the Mexican government is] fighting aggressively and effectively.” Sheinbaum’s Security Secretary, Omar García Harfuch — whom CJNG in 2020 attempted to assassinate — has said that “if we didn’t have results, I’d be concerned” about interference from the US. “But we’re increasingly delivering results.” Will it be enough? On Monday, Trump responded to the operation that left 25 Mexican national guard members dead, posting the following: “Mexico must step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!” So, not enough.
Lord Almighty: British police on Monday arrested Lord Peter Mandelson, a former senior British politician and UK Ambassador to the US, “on suspicion of misconduct in public office.” Mandelson is accused of sharing confidential government information with Jeffrey Epstein, with whom he maintained a long and close relationship that was revealed in the newly released Epstein files. We covered the specifics here, but here’s a refresher: For decades, Mandelson was one of the most powerful figures in British and European politics, nicknamed the “Prince of Darkness” for his ruthlessness. This allegedly included giving Epstein confidential government information, like advance warning of a massive financial bailout.
Short Shelf Life: Longevity influencer Peter Attia has resigned as a contributor to CBS News after the extent of his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein was revealed by the newly released files. Editor-in-chief Bari Weiss appointed Attia — and 18 other individuals many of whom have big online followings but questionable credentials — as a contributor in January. When Attia’s ties to Epstein were revealed, Weiss reportedly chose to keep him on — until now. Attia’s correspondence with Epstein seems to have begun in 2015, long after Epstein’s conviction for soliciting a child prostitute. Attia gave Epstein medical advice, which he urged Epstein to follow in order to “keep up with the 23-year-old beauties.” And he did it all for free, or at least for favors. Meanwhile, Attia bemoaned his own health issues — that is, “JE withdrawal,” caused by going too long without seeing Epstein. In one exchange with the convicted sex offender, Attia joked that “Pu--y is low carb.” In another Attia complained to Epstein that “the biggest problem with becoming friends with you [is that] the life you lead is so outrageous, and yet I can’t tell a soul…” Those of you who are health care practitioners know the difference between Peter Attia and so many of these other powerful people who enabled Epstein: As a healthcare professional, Attia is a “mandated reporter.” Meaning its his legal and moral obligation to report any suspicion of child abuse or sexual exploitation to authorities. Weiss allowed Attia to resign today.
All Signs Point One Way: The Trump administration’s military deployment to the Middle East is now the largest in the region since the invasion of Iraq. One professor of political science warned, “Never has the US deployed this much force against a potential enemy and not launched strikes.” Steve Witkoff this weekend said Trump is “curious” why Iran hasn’t “capitulated.” Iran last week said it is preparing “a draft of a possible agreement,” to be presented before the next round of talks on Thursday. But with neither side willing to compromise — we explain the sticking points here — officials throughout the region believe conflict is imminent.
Random Number Generator: Trump on Saturday increased his global tariff to 15%. That’s the maximum permitted by the trade law, Section 122, he’s using to justify it. According to Section 122, the tariff can only last 150 days before congressional approval is required. It will likely be challenged in court before then. But that gives Trump time to get moving on the various other methods through which he can continue imposing tariffs — which he’s determined to do. (We explain them all here.)
No Backsies: Businesses celebrated the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling as a step toward desperately needed stability — but Trump’s response has caused, in the words of Bernd Lange, chair of the EU’s trade committee, “pure tariff chaos.” Lange called Trump’s 15% tariff “a clear breach of the deal” between the US and EU, which is now considering suspending ratification. India has also postponed trade negotiations with the US, due to take place this week, as a result of the 15% tariff. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Sunday said the administration expects “our partners to stand by” trade deals already struck; Trump took to Truth Social to threaten “any country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision” with… any guesses… “a much higher tariff.”
State of Disunion: Trump will deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA), who was handcuffed last year after trying to question Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, will deliver a rebuttal in Spanish. Several House Democrats have invited Epstein survivors to attend. The Trump administration invited both US hockey teams after they clinched gold medals at the Olympics this weekend; the women’s team declined. FBI Director Kash Patel flew out to Italy on taxpayer dime to party with the men’s team, which you can watch here.
Context: Last year Trump went into the speech with a career-high approval rating of 48%, according to CNN polling — but that has now slumped to dismal levels. One poll has 60% of Americans disapproving of Trump’s job performance. (I know you all mistrust polling; just know that’s a very bad number.) CNN has his approval among independents at just 26%, lower than at any point in either of his terms. (That’s worse. Independents are the swing voters who decide elections.)
Keep reading to find out…
👩⚖️ Why a top Trump official just gave up on his prosecution of six Democrats
⛔ The fate of Jack Smith’s final report
🌨️ What records this winter storm broke across the East Coast
🥇How an early retirement helped skating superstar Alysa Liu win the biggest competition of her life — and change a sport for good, too
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