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It was a huge night for Democrats. Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel calls it a “repudiation” of Trump and his policies. Emanuel also sees lessons for Democrats heading into 2026 and 2028.
I’m wary of over reading one election, but Rahm’s voice is one Democrats listen to. Before he was U.S. ambassador to Japan, mayor of Chicago, and chief of staff to President Obama, he was a member of Congress and chair of the DCCC — where he helped Democrats flip the House in 2006. We don’t always agree, but he knows how to win.
In this conversation, he offers a blunt assessment of Democrats’ opportunity — and risks — in future elections. Emanuel argues the party’s path to victory runs through kitchen table issues in the Midwest, not progressive gatherings in “Manhattan and Park Slope, Brooklyn.” “You’re going to learn more from what Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger did and Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill did,” Emanuel tells me. “They were able to start communicating with a group of voters that usually put Democrats on mute because of their profile.”
Still, Emanuel also shares advice he offered New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani when they met.
When I asked Emanuel directly about his presidential ambitions, he claimed he’s still deciding — but leaned far in, telling me he’s “going to make my claim” on “education” and “access to the American dream.” “I am Rahm Israel Emanuel,” he says. “I’m not ashamed of it.”
Though he wouldn’t handicap California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, he took a subtle shot at both without naming them: 2028 needs to be “about having a positive vision for the future, not fighting Trump.”
We also talk about antisemitism, the economy (he calls it “two economies — one booming, one sucking wind”), public safety, and ICE raids in Chicago.
Bruno even makes a cameo.
You can watch our conversation at the top of this newsletter.
Below, we cover the key numbers from Tuesday’s elections. Plus some other headlines that you may have missed.
Election Results
BREAKING: We’re leading with this because of the profound impact it will have on your schedules. (Or maybe I’m projecting because I’m at the airport right now.) The FAA is reducing air traffic across 40 major airports by 10%, effective Friday, because of the shutdown. Air traffic controllers are being forced to work without pay; many are refusing, calling in sick to spend time with family or work another job to pay the bills, causing widespread staffing shortages. What are the chances this is meant to increase public outrage and pressure Congress to end the shutdown?
Blue Wave: Democrats are smiling again for the first time since last November. Voters clearly demonstrated their frustration with Trump’s economy and political priorities. I break down the results with former Ambassador Rahm Emanuel, which you can watch at the top of this newsletter.
New York: Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani took home over one million votes, more than his opponents, Andrew Cuomo and Curtis Sliwa, combined. His victory was driven by the highest turnout in over 50 years — almost twice as many people voted compared to the last mayoral election in 2021 — and he performed particularly strongly with young people and people of color. Mamdani will be the city’s first ever Muslim mayor (and the country’s most powerful Muslim elected official), its first mayor of South Asian descent, and its youngest mayor in over a century. In his victory speech, he pledged to focus on making the city more affordable, called out Trump, promised to “build a City Hall that stands steadfast alongside Jewish New Yorkers and does not waver in the fight against the scourge of antisemitism,” and said, “No more will New York be a city where you can traffic in Islamophobia and win an election.” He also vowed to work hand in hand with the police. Trump appeared to respond with a cryptic message, posted on Truth Social: “AND SO IT BEGINS!”
Virginia: Abigail Spanberger easily defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. She took home 57.2% of the vote, with the AP calling the race an hour after polls closed. In doing so, she became Virginia’s 75th governor — and the first woman to hold the position.
Down Ballot: Virginia voters also elected Democrat Ghazala Hashmi as the state’s new lieutenant governor. She defeated talk-show host John Reid and will be the first Muslim woman in the US to be elected to a statewide office. In the contest for attorney general, Democrat Jay Jones survived the publication of his violent messages and defeated Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, albeit with a narrower margin than Spanberger.
New Jersey: Democrat Mikie Sherrill took home 56.2% of the vote in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, handily defeating her Trump-endorsed opponent Jack Ciattarelli. Another moderate, Sherrill’s victory marks the first time in a half-century that New Jersey voters kept one party in the governor’s office three terms in a row. She’s also the first Democratic woman to be governor of New Jersey. The election was the most expensive in state history, drawing over $200 million in spending — almost double the total spent in 2021 or 2017.
Major Shift: Sherrill and Spanberger won Latino voters by margins of 2-1; they both flipped multiple counties with high Latino populations that voted for Trump in 2024. Interestingly, a recent poll found that immigration isn’t the highest concern of Hispanic voters. Instead, they are most worried about affordability and the economy, which were central to Democratic campaigns.
Trivia: Coincidentally, when Sherrill and Spanberger were freshmen congresswomen, they were roommates on Capitol Hill.
Pennsylvania: Three Democratic state Supreme Court justices survived a yes or no vote to keep them in office in Pennsylvania, ensuring a 5–2 Democratic majority for the next two years at least.
California: Voters overwhelmingly backed Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting proposal, which will temporarily enact gerrymandered voting maps to hand Democrats up to five seats in the US House. It’s an attempt to offset Republican gerrymandering in other states. California Republicans immediately filed a lawsuit against the move, arguing it unconstitutionally favors Hispanic voters.
Maine: Voters strongly rejected a conservative proposal that would have made it more difficult to vote, a setback for the GOP’s plan to make voting laws stricter nationwide.
Mayors: Democrats retained control of the mayoral office in several major cities, including Atlanta, Boston, Buffalo, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. In Miami, where the mayor’s office is technically nonpartisan, voters appeared to side with Democrat Eileen Higgins. Preliminary results put her with roughly 36% of the vote, meaning she’ll go to a runoff election with second-place, likely the Republican Emilio T. González. If Higgins wins the runoff, she’ll become the city’s first female mayor and its first Democratic mayor in three decades.
Texas: Voters in the Lone Star State approved 17 propositions, the most in over two decades. One of them will see the state make its largest-ever investment into its water supply — $20 billion over the next two decades.
Deep Blue: Several Democratic candidates competed for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, based in Houston. None received over 50% of the vote, meaning the seat will remain empty for a few more months while a runoff election determines the winner: Either Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, who received 28.9% of the vote, or attorney Amanda Edwards, who came second with 25.6%. Edwards is endorsed by EMILYs List; watch my recent conversation with the organization’s president here.
Georgia: Peter Hubbard and Alicia Johnson handily defeated Republican incumbents on Georgia’s Public Service Commission, becoming the first Democrats to be elected to statewide constitutional office in almost twenty years. The Commission regulates the state’s utilities; both Hubbard and Johnson are clean energy advocates.
Mississippi: Democrats won two special elections for state Senate in deep, deep red Mississippi, breaking the GOP’s supermajority. The elections were called after a court ordered the state to redistrict in order to give Black voters more representation. Democrats also appear to have won a similar special election for state House.
Sore Loser: Trump wasted no time in displaying his disapproval and distancing himself from the disastrous results. He claimed in one post that pollsters thought “REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT” because “TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN [sic].”
Rock and Hard Place: These elections made it clear that Trump is a problem for the GOP. On the one hand, his ability to turnout his base does seem to be limited when he’s not on the ballot. And unless the GOP changes the constitution, Trump will never be on the ballot again. On the other hand, exit polls suggest that many voters saw their votes as a message to Trump. For example, about 25% of Virginia voters who thought outgoing Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin did a good job backed the Democrat, Spanberger, instead of her Republican opponent. Rahm Emanuel told me he’d love to see Trump campaign.
Change the Rules: On Wednesday morning, Trump pressed Republicans to eliminate the Senate filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reiterated today that ending the filibuster is “just not happening.” Despite the pressure from Trump, Republican lawmakers are convinced that if Democrats take back control of a Senate with no filibuster, they will pass more progressive legislation, such as statehood for DC and Puerto Rico or expanding the Supreme Court.
Other Headlines
What Authority: The Supreme Court on Wednesday seemed unconvinced by the government’s defense of Trump’s decision to use his emergency powers to enact sweeping tariffs. The Constitution says tariffs are the purview of Congress. This is a very significant case, which Trump critics are optimistic about winning; it could have far-reaching implications for Trump’s use of presidential emergency powers. Lower courts ruled that Trump exceeded his constitutional authority by enacting his sweeping tariffs; both liberal and conservative Justices appeared worried by this, with Trump-appointed Justice Neil Gorsuch warning of a “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” Trump warned the case is “literally LIFE OR DEATH for our Country,” though experts and administration officials have noted that there are several ways he could continue his tariff policy (albeit more limited) even if the Court rules against him. The administration’s solicitor general insisted the tariffs are regulatory, claiming the fact they raised revenue is “only incidental.” That might be news to Trump, who just hours later once again bragged that tariffs have raised “hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Naughty: A federal judge Wednesday sharply criticized the Trump administration’s prosecution of former FBI Director James Comey. The judge accused Trump’s handpicked prosecutor of taking an “indict first, investigate later” approach, and warned the prosecution was close to mishandling evidence collected in 2019 and 2020 — which Comey’s team has not yet been allowed to view. The judge ordered the DOJ to provide Comey’s team the evidence by Thursday.
Making History: As of Wednesday, the government has been shut for 36 full days — the longest government shutdown in US history. Trump’s assertion that the shutdown hurt Republicans at the ballot box Tuesday seems to have stiffened Democratic lawmakers’ resolve; they continue to demand the GOP negotiate with them on extending crucial healthcare subsidies.
Testing, Testing: The US military launched an unarmed nuclear missile over the Pacific Ocean Tuesday night. This follows Trump’s directive to resume nuclear weapons testing. However, this type of test — “noncritical,” as it doesn’t actually involve a nuclear explosion — isn’t unusual; the previous test of this missile, a Minuteman III, was in May.
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