Americans Were Told to “DEPART NOW.” The US Wasn’t Ready to Help.
The war is expanding, but the US can't explain how it ends. Q&A with the ambassador who evacuated 15,000 Americans. Plus: The Democrat who thinks he can win Texas. And News That Doesn't Suck.
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Do you remember all the times Trump attacked the Biden administration for its failure to have an evacuation plan for Americans who wanted to leave Afghanistan? In the end, the US airlifted 6,000 Americans out, 125,000 people total.
I bring it up because there are currently up to one million Americans under “DEPART NOW” orders in the Middle East, many with no way to leave. Today’s guest is Jeff Feltman, former US Ambassador to Lebanon, Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, and UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs.
During the 2006 Lebanon war, Feltman oversaw the evacuation of 15,000 Americans — the largest non-combatant evacuation in US history at that point. He is also one of the few Americans to have met the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He shares his impressions in our conversation.
Feltman calls the failure to prepare for a mass evacuation “a complete dereliction of duty.” He shares advice for stranded Americans, explains what the administration should have done — and what it still can. On regime change, he says he’s “skeptical this is going to work.” He sees more resilience in Iran’s system than Washington wants to admit, and offers his read on Iran’s strategy and how the region is likely to respond.
You can find Ambassador Feltman’s writing here, and watch our interview here:
In today’s newsletter: The US and Iran are running opposite playbooks and Iran’s strategy is harder to counter than it looks. The human cost is climbing. The State Department told Americans to “DEPART NOW.” What it didn’t tell them is it wasn’t ready to help. A US submarine just did something that hasn’t happened since 1945. Israel is using this moment to open another front. The war powers vote split in a way that might surprise you.
Also: A new Fed chair, a joint anti-cartel operation in Ecuador, Cuba goes dark again, and the Texas Democrat one GOP strategist calls “a perfect storm.” Plus News That Doesn’t Suck.
The Latest From the Middle East
Taking the Toll: At least 1,000 people are reported to have died in Iran alone, and many more are wounded. In Lebanon, the health ministry on Wednesday reported at least 72 dead amid ongoing strikes and a ground operation by Israel. Iran’s strikes have killed dozens of people throughout the region, including in Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, the UAE. Some of the dead and injured are from countries as far away as Uganda, Nepal, and the Philippines.
Not Forgotten: The US military has publicly identified four of the six troops we know were killed in an Iranian drone strike on Port Shuaiba in Kuwait. They are Capt. Cody Khork, Sgt. Noah Tietjens, Sgt. Nicole Amor, and Sgt. Declan Cody. Cody, just 20, was posthumously promoted. “I still don’t fully think it’s real,” his sister said. “I just remember all of our conversations about what he was going to do when he came back.”
Expanding or Spiraling: The two sides are running opposite playbooks. The US wants a fast, overwhelming campaign that destroys Iran’s offensive capabilities before the war becomes politically unsustainable at home. Iran wants to stretch the battlefield — dragging in more countries, more governments, even NATO, to make the price of this war impossible to ignore. Here’s how each side is doing it.
US: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday said the US has “only just begun” its campaign against Iran, signaling combat operations could last three to eight weeks. We’re seeing the campaign expand already: US Central Command claims to have hit nearly 2,000 targets across Iran in round-the-clock operations it called “24/7 strikes … from seabed to space and cyberspace.” CENTCOM also claims to have “struck or sunk” over 20 Iranian ships, including one warship torpedoed by a US submarine in international waters near Sri Lanka. This is the first submarine torpedo shot since World War II. It’s meant to signal that no Iranian vessel is beyond America’s reach. Sri Lanka’s navy recovered over 80 dead bodies and rescued more than 30 survivors. The strategy is regime decapitation. It began with the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and has since expanded into what the military describes as a global hunt for Iranian assets — on land, sea, and in cyberspace. The Trump administration says its goals are to: destroy Iran’s weapons stockpile, take out its ballistic missile sites, and degrade the industrial networks it would need to rebuild a nuclear program.
Israel/Lebanon: Israel is expanding the conflict on the ground in Lebanon, where the Israeli military has ordered an immediate evacuation of all territory in the south and sent ground troops into the town of Khiam. The apparent goal: dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure, establish a permanent buffer zone, and clear the way for the Lebanese government — which recently banned all Hezbollah military activity — to reclaim sovereign control.
Iran: Iran has widened its field of attack launching retaliatory missile strikes into at least 11 countries in the region. For example, on Wednesday NATO forces shot down an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkish air space, marking the alliance’s first direct military engagement in a conflict they insist they will not join. An Iranian missile penetrated the highly fortified Al Udaid airbase in Qatar, America’s largest military installation in the region; Qatari officials report no casualties. In the UAE, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps claims they disabled or destroyed two cutting edge missile defense radars; that has not been independently verified. A drone strike on the US consulate in Dubai caused a fire in the parking lot but no casualties. Analysis of satellite imagery shows damage to communications infrastructure in at least seven of 11 US military facilities hit so far. Iran appears to be pursuing an asymmetric war of attrition, designed to exhaust US and Israeli resources, inflict economic pain, and pressure neutral neighbors to demand a US pullback.
Far From Home: Thousands of Americans are stranded in the Middle East and the administration is still working on a gameplan to get them out. For days Americans have essentially been on their own. Calling a State Department helpline offered them a pre-recorded message of Secretary of State Marco Rubio warning people to “not rely on the US government for assisted departure or evacuation.” This after the State Department told Americans to “DEPART NOW … using available commercial transportation.” The agency issued the alert as multiple airports were closed, over 18,000 flights cancelled, and those remaining skyrocketing in price. “It is the epitome of absurdity,” said retired US Maj. Gen. Randy Manner, stranded in Dubai. “A total failure.” Trump’s defense? “It all happened very quickly.” The State Department says it is organizing flights, helping Americans book commercial tickets, and “facilitating travel to third countries.” Dozens of lawmakers are pressing Rubio for more action.
Info: For State Department assistance, you can call 1-202-501-4444 (from abroad) and +1-888-407-4747 (from the US and Canada).
Tense: Oil prices stabilized Wednesday after days of sharp jumps, but the threat is far from over. Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for 20% of the world’s daily oil; it has struck multiple ships and seaborne traffic has collapsed by at least 80%. The Trump administration responded by announcing it would insure tankers in the Gulf and potentially provide military escorts, a sign the White House knows oil is its political vulnerability. Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg analysts warn that a prolonged disruption could send oil prices up 80%, to highs not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump on Tuesday admitted the war might cause “a little high oil prices for a little while,” but insisted “as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop.” Translation: The administration is racing to keep energy costs from turning more of the public against the war.
No Quarter: Israel on Tuesday bombed the building housing the Iranian officials tasked with appointing the next Supreme Leader, claiming it disrupted proceedings. Israel’s defense minister on Wednesday warned that “every leader appointed by the Iranian terror regime … will be a target for elimination.”
Who’s Next: Trump on Tuesday said that “someone from within” the Iranian regime “that’s currently popular” might be his preferred choice to assume power. “Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” he said. “Now we have another group, they may be dead also.… Pretty soon we’re not going to know anybody.” He said the “worst-case” scenario is “somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person.” Mojtaba Khamenei, son of and leading hardline successor to recently slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly survived the ongoing strikes.
Someone Call DOGE: A new report by the Center for American Progress estimates the war has already cost the US over $5 billion.
Who Blinks First: Officials and analysts are concerned the US will run out of defense munitions before Iran stops firing missiles. The regime is estimated to have 80,000 Shahed drones alone. Gulf nations have burned through interceptor munitions, with at least one country’s supplies reportedly running low. (Gulf nations deny this.) One missile expert warned the rate of interceptions we are currently seeing “can’t be maintained for more than another week.” Pentagon sources told the Washington Post “there is concern about this lasting more than a few days” and said the mood in the DoD is “intense and paranoid.” However, the rate at which Iran is launching missiles is reportedly declining.
Looking Forward: Administration officials on Wednesday refused to explain what victory in Iran looks like. Israel’s defense minister said the goal is to help “create the conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow” the regime “and replace it.” The US and Israel have been targeting the Iranian regime’s internal security apparatus — police stations, detention centers, and related buildings. The CIA is reportedly arming Kurdish forces to spark an uprising, with a ground operation expected as soon as this week. Worth noting: In 2019 Trump abandoned Kurds in Syria. One senior Kurdistan official said it’s “very dangerous, but what can we do? We cannot stand against America. We are very frightened.” Ambassador Feltman offers helpful historical context on this in our conversation, which you can watch at the top of this newsletter.
No Checks: The Senate voted against a war powers resolution that would have forced Trump to seek congressional approval to continue his war in Iran. The vote was largely along party lines, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) voting in favor and Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) voting against. The House will vote Thursday on a similar resolution that would terminate the conflict; centrist House Democrats on Tuesday introduced yet another resolution that would end military operations in 30 days without congressional authorization.
Life Under Siege: In Iran, people are sheltering indoors — venturing out only for supplies, which are quickly becoming unaffordable, and attempting to stay in contact with loved ones through internet blackouts. The regime has reportedly warned people to stay off the streets. “The volume of attacks is so high,” one Tehran resident told the BBC, “every day has felt like a month.”
Here Are Your (Other) Headlines
Seeing Purple: Texas state Representative James Talarico won the Democratic primary for US Senate. Talarico campaigned on a platform of populist economic policy and faith-rooted moral language, often describing his politics as “top versus bottom” rather than “left versus right.” To build his coalition, Talarico traveled to traditionally Republican rural counties and targeted Hispanic voters through partnerships with Spanish-language influencers and musicians. He outspent his primary opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, nearly five-to-one during the primary. Talarico’s strategy emphasized his experience winning a Republican-leaning state house seat in Williamson County as evidence of his ability to appeal to independents and moderate voters in a general election. A GOP campaign advisor called Talarico a “perfect storm” who can “appeal to moderates and soft Republicans.” Talarico’s best shot at winning would be facing off against scandal-ridden former Attorney General Ken Paxton. But Paxton’s opponent, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, beat expectations to force a runoff election in the Republican primary. National Democratic strategists view this Senate seat as essential for control of Congress,
Suppresion? Talarico’s primary opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), on Wednesday conceded and called on Democrats to unite behind Talarico — but insisted voters “had been disenfranchised.” Talarico agreed, alleging “voter suppression.” Here’s what happened: A last-minute rules change caused widespread confusion; hundreds of people were reportedly turned away from polling centers in Dallas County, and the county’s election website crashed. A court on Tuesday ordered polls to stay open later compensate for the “mass confusion” — but the state Supreme Court blocked that ruling, telling election workers to separate ballots cast in the extra hours. The challenge to the lower court ruling came from the office of Ken Paxton. Rep. Crockett warned the fallout will dampen voter turnout in the midterms: “The Democratic Party should absolutely prepare for the worst and get some things litigated right now.”
Other Races: Two other states held primary elections on Tuesday. In Arkansas, incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton will face Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer and business owner. In North Carolina, Trump-endorsed former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley will face former Governor Roy Cooper.
New Leadership: Trump on Wednesday nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh, a former Fed governor and Morgan Stanley banker, is seen as more aligned with Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
Partners in (Anti-)Crime: Forces from the US, Ecuador, and European international police agency Europol have launched a new joint operation against drug trafficking in Ecuador. President Daniel Noboa said “regional allies” are participating in a “new phase” of the country’s war against cartels. This operation targeted the Los Lobos cartel, which the Trump administration designated a foreign terrorist organization. Noboa also estimated that 70% of the world’s cocaine flows through Ecuador’s ports.
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