Black Rain: The Threat of an Energy War
Oil depots, refineries, and shipping are now targets. Plus: Anthropic sues the DOD. The DOJ lets Ticketmaster off easier. ISIS-inspired attack at Gracie Mansion. Remembering the man who exposed Nixon.
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At his first full press conference since launching the war, President Trump said the U.S. operation in Iran “will be ended soon” — though not this week. He also said the U.S. is “winning,” but “we haven’t won enough.” Iran is effectively decapitated, he said: no navy, no air force, no radar, no telecoms, no leadership. “It’s all gone.” He acknowledged the U.S. could declare victory and stop. Instead: “We are going to go further.”
On the economy: Trump insists oil prices are only “artificially up” because of what he called the Iran “excursion” and will drop once it’s over. That may not hold. As you’ll see below, Iran is openly threatening a possible energy war — while strikes on fuel sites, refineries, and shipping lanes are already jolting global markets.
Trump kept blaming Iran for the strike on a girls’ school. Mounting evidence points to the U.S. He justified the war by claiming Iran was within a week of attacking “us,” and was preparing to dominate the Middle East and destroy Israel, with thousands of missiles aimed across the region. He also made clear he doesn’t consider Iran’s newly chosen leader acceptable.
Bottom line: Trump says the war ends soon. But tonight he called this “just the beginning — the beginning of building a new country.” That’s doesn’t sound like a wind-down. It sounds like a pitch for phase two.
In today’s newsletter: Black rain blankets Tehran as refineries become targets. Global oil shock. Saudi Arabia warns Iran. A strike the US isn’t ready to own. Anthropic fights the Pentagon blacklist. The government blinks on Ticketmaster. A failed bombing outside Mayor Mamdani’s residence. And remembering Alexander Butterfield, the Watergate truth-teller.
And a quick note — we are taking a rare day off on Wednesday but will be back in your inbox on Friday.
Iran Update: “Just The Beginning”
Taking Stock: The death toll has surpassed 1,500. Eight US service members have died, including Army Sgt. Benjamin Pennington, 26, killed in a March 1 Iranian strike on a Saudi base. At least seven people have died in Iranian attacks on ships, which have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. US and Israeli officials claim they’ve destroyed 60% of Iran’s missile launchers and 80% of its air defenses. Iran’s Red Crescent says the strikes have targeted nearly 8,000 homes, 32 health centers, and 65 schools.
New Leader, Same War: The Iranian regime on Monday selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of late Ayatollah Khamenei, as new supreme leader. This signals continuity, not retreat. The son of the late Ayatollah is closely linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and is expected to keep war strategy and his father’s hardline control in place. Trump has made clear he considers this choice unacceptable. Supporters gathered in Tehran to celebrate.
Energy War? Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says the war is entering a “dangerous new phase.” That would be an energy war, threatening to hold the global economy hostage through massive oil disruptions. Israel triggered this shift after a massive campaign over the weekend striking multiple Iranian fuel depots and refineries. Their argument: this will cripple the regime, deprive the IRGC of the energy it needs to power its war machine, and make it impossible for them to fully reconstitute. But the immediate result is an environmental and economic catastrophe.
Black Rain: Israel’s strikes on Iranian oil depots ignited massive fireballs, sending fire shooting through pipes that exploded in the streets of Tehran. Those fires released toxic chemicals – a slurry of unburned hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and heavy metals — that include “fire bubbles,” pockets of pressurized fuel gases that can spontaneously ignite or explode upon contact. “A black monster has swallowed the sky,” one resident said. “The skin on my face, especially my lips, is sore and raw.” Another described the scenes as “apocalyptic.”
Iran Responds: In response, Iran launched missiles at Israel’s Haifa refinery, it hit fuel storage tanks in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and targeted Bahrain’s largest refinery, prompting the state oil company to declare force majeure Monday. It’s also been hitting ships in the strait of Hormuz – making this the first time in modern history that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic.
Trump Not Happy: President Trump doesn’t like it when rising gas prices threaten his standing with the public — or the markets. And the Israeli strike threatens to trigger sticker shock. Axios reports that the Trump administration’s response to the attack was “WTF.” One Trump adviser said Trump “doesn’t like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn’t want to burn it.” US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said “the US is targeting zero energy infrastructure” in Iran.” Rising prices are just one objection. There are others. Destroying infrastructure and spreading toxic air could rally Iranians behind the regime so many want gone. And one expert warns it could make a democratic transition nearly impossible “because any future state would struggle simply to keep the country functioning.” Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen says that this is a “unique window” to topple the regime by dismantling its industrial spine.
Saudi in the War? The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia warned it is prepared to respond in kind if Iran continues to attack its oil storage facilities, refineries, and airport. The US State Dept ordered a mandatory evacuation of all non-essential US government personnel and their families from Saudi Arabia.
Hold On to Your Oil Caps: We are feeling the effects. One California gas station is charging more than $8 a gallon. It’s an outlier, but US gas prices are up more than 25% since the start of the war, and diesel almost 50%. Europe is seeing sharper spikes with gas up 67%. Trump said prices will come down soon and argued they are a “small price to pay for U.S.A, and World, Safety and Peace.” Finance ministers for G7 countries met Monday to discuss the situation; they pledged to take “necessary measures” to address the economic impacts of the war, but didn’t agree to release emergency oil reserves. oil prices spiked to almost $120 a barrel Monday, before falling below $100.
Iran’s Oil Lifeline: The US is also reportedly considering seizing Kharg Island, which handles up to 90% of the Iran’s crude oil. Doing so would strip the regime and the IRGC of its funding. But it risks a major escalation and a potentially massive hit to the global economy.
Water Wars: Refineries aren’t the only infrastructure at risk. Desalination plants in Iran and Bahrain have been targeted in strikes, sparking fears of widespread civilian casualties in a region plagued by water shortages in the best of times. Just six months ago, Iran faced its most serious water crisis in decades, forcing the president to warn Tehran might have to be evacuated. Desalination plants provide up to 90% of the drinking water in some Gulf nations.
Brought Home: Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and other officials on Saturday attended a dignified transfer ceremony, returning six US troops killed in the Middle East. Soldiers carried six flag-draped cases off a military cargo plane at Delaware’s Dover Air Force Base. The six: Maj. Jeffrey O’Brien, Capt. Cody Khork, Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan, Sgt. 1st Class Nicole Amor, Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens, and Sgt. Declan Coady. Also in attendance were the families of the deceased, who visited with Trump after the ceremony.
Undignified Transfer: Trump faced bipartisan criticism for wearing a baseball cap during the ceremony — a first for a sitting US president. The white hat, emblazoned with gold “USA,” “45,” and “47,” for Trump’s two terms, sells for $55 online. When reporting on Saturday’s ceremony, Fox News used old video footage of Trump at a similar ceremony in December in which he wasn’t wearing the cap. Fox News has since apologized.
Take Responsibility: A preliminary US assessment has reportedly determined the US military was “likely” responsible for the deadly strike on a girl’s elementary school in Iran. Trump on Monday continued to claim, without evidence, that Iran was responsible. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth refused to say who was responsible, repeatedly insisting the military is “investigating” and that “we never target civilians.” A video reviewed by multiple outlets appears to show a Tomahawk missile striking the base next to the school. The US is the only military force in this conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles. A New York Times investigation found that strikes hit the school and the base simultaneously. A former senior adviser on civilian harm at the Pentagon called it a likely instance of “target misidentification.” The school was once part of the base, but satellite imagery shows it was separated by 2016. “Given the US’s intelligence capabilities,” one former State Department official said, the military “should have known that a school was in the vicinity.”
Safe Haven: Australia has agreed to provide asylum for members of the Iranian women’s soccer team, which was there to compete in the Asian World Cup. Players refused to sing the Iranian national anthem; this was interpreted as a protest against the regime. Five officially defected and have been taken to a safe house. Trump on Monday warned the players would “most likely be killed” if forced to return to Iran, and claimed their families in Iran had been threatened. He said the US would take the players if Australia refused, a reversal of his administration’s policy of deporting hundreds Iranians back to the regime, including women. The players had been labeled traitors. A presenter on Iranian state TV warned that “traitors during wartime must be dealt with more severely.”
Next Step? Trump on Monday insisted he is “nowhere near” ordering troops into Iran. But he is reportedly considering sending special forces into Iran to seize its highly enriched uranium, which some worry could be converted into nuclear weapons. The US and Israel have reportedly discussed such an operation. One problem? Officials are unclear where it all is.
Here Are Your (Other) Headlines
Fighting Back: AI developer Anthropic on Monday sued the Department of Defense for labelling it a “supply chain risk.” This punishment, never before applied to a US firm, effectively bans any Pentagon contractor from doing business with Anthropic. The declaration came after Anthropic refused to drop two of its core safety guardrails, which prohibit its AI tool, Claude, from being used to conduct domestic surveillance or operate fully autonomous lethal weapons. The Information Technology Industry Council, a leading tech industry group that includes titans like Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and Apple, last week sent the Pentagon a letter expressing “concern” over the supply chain risk designation and calling the move an overreach. “Contract disputes should be resolved through continued negotiation,” the letter states. “Emergency authorities such as supply chain risk designations exist for genuine emergencies.”
Easy Ticket Out: The DOJ on Monday struck a surprise settlement with Live Nation, owner of Ticketmaster, effectively killing a massive antitrust lawsuit against the company. Even the judge isn’t happy. Under the settlement, Live Nation agreed to pay $280 million in damages to the roughly 40 states that participated in the lawsuit. The settlement caps service fees at 15% of the ticket price and includes other measures designed to reduce what the DOJ called Live Nation’s illegal monopoly in the events ticketing space. Live Nation’s CEO said he is “proud” of the settlement. The DOJ had originally sought to break up Live Nation and Ticketmaster, unwinding a controversial 2010 merger. That is not the outcome. A bipartisan group of at least two dozen states refused to sign the settlement and are expected to continue litigation without the federal government. New York Attorney General Letitia James said the settlement “fails to address the monopoly at the center of this case, and would benefit Live Nation at the expense of consumers.” The settlement seems to have surprised even the judge, who said the deal “shows absolute disrespect for the court, the jury, and this entire process. It is absolutely unacceptable.” Taylor Swift could not be reached for comment ;)
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