“Complete Betrayal” or “Only Deal On the Table?" Why 8 Democrats Broke Ranks to End Shutdown
What the shutdown deal means for the party and you. Plus: Why Trump wants $1 billion from the BBC. SCOTUS leaves gay marriage, targets mail-in ballots. And a major Louvre mystery is finally solved.
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The Senate is voting now to end the shutdown, and my inbox has become a monument to Democratic despair.
Some can’t afford the new health premiums and genuinely believed Democrats would fix this before the new year. Others are livid that the party let people suffer only to cave without extracting a single win.
If I were in the Senate, I’d likely hold firm and keep the government shuttered. But here’s why eight Democratic Senators voted to end the shutdown, and how they’re positioning Democrats for the next fight.
First, the GOP made abundantly clear they would not cut any deal on ACA subsidies. These Democrats concluded there was simply no deal to be had on health care. Not now, not three weeks from now. No amount of suffering was going to change that calculation.
Second, the shutdown was metastasizing into something genuinely dangerous. Millions of Americans facing starvation. Federal workers fired or going without pay. Air travel teetering toward chaos — there are six-hour lines at Chicago’s O’Hare airport today — with the very real possibility of sending the economy into freefall. Imagine if there’s a plane crash or a terror attack while thousands of people are stuck waiting in TSA lines. Would Republicans alone shoulder the blame? Probably not. We’d be in deeply unpredictable territory.
So they made a choice: rather than wait to surrender under nightmarish circumstances, do it now and at least get something in return.
Here’s what they got: Full SNAP and WIC funding through fiscal 2026, which means if there’s another shutdown fight, the administration can’t weaponize food programs. The complete reversal of federal worker layoffs that happened during the shutdown, plus a prohibition on using federal funds for similar purges through January. And backpay for all federal employees.
The funding deal runs through January, at which point Democrats can decide whether they want another fight. By then, SNAP beneficiaries are protected. Health care is now the central theme in next year’s campaign. And Senators will have to vote on health care.
These Senators decided immediate relief trumped prolonged theater.
And here’s the cold political truth: Democrats are actually better off if health care costs skyrocket. That transforms an abstract policy debate into a visceral midterm issue. Again, I’m explaining, not endorsing this strategy.
Also in this newsletter: Trump shakes up the BBC; SCOTUS protects same sex marriage, but puts mail-in ballots in the cross-hairs; new guidance on menopause therapy; Sydney Sweeney’s box-office faceplant; the Louvre Look; and News That Doesn’t Suck… for Pandas.
Here Are Your Headlines
The Beginning of the End: After 41 days and counting, the longest government shutdown in US history is finally nearing an end. Eight Senate Democrats broke ranks Sunday night to advance a funding package — one that does not include an extension of crucial healthcare subsidies. That apparent concession has infuriated many Democrats and much of the party’s base, who are accusing the eight lawmakers (and the party’s leaders) of once again failing to stand up to the GOP and defend their constituents. But things are a little more complicated than that. Here’s what you need to know.
What’s In The Deal: The deal funds the government for only a few months, through January. It also includes the following:
Three bills to provide funding to certain groups through the next fiscal year, until September 2026:
The complete reversal of Trump’s shutdown layoffs, with similar firings forbidden through January.
Funds to ensure all federal employees receive backpay. (Trump previously threatened to deny backpay to certain federal workers. On Monday he threatened to dock the pay of air traffic controllers who did not “get back to work, NOW!!!” He also suggested that those who worked without pay throughout the shutdown receive a $10,000 bonus, but hasn’t provided details.)
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) promised to allow the Senate to vote on extending health care subsidies in December. But any such vote would need 60 in support, which is incredibly unlikely in the GOP-controlled chamber. And House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) today once again refused to commit to allowing the House to vote on the subsidies.
A retroactive provision that will seemingly allow several GOP senators to launch lawsuits over their phone records being seized as part of former special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into the Jan 6 insurrection.
Arguments in Favor: As mentioned in the intro, supporters of the deal argued that Republicans were never going to budge. “This was the only deal on the table,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) claimed. And some supporters believe that allowing Republicans to formally vote against the health care subsidies, as they almost certainly will do, will become a potent political weapon for Democrats to use in 2026.
Arguments Against: The majority of Democratic lawmakers rejected these arguments. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) slammed the deal, saying, “Voters were pretty clear on Tuesday night what they wanted … Democrats to do, and I am really saddened that we didn’t listen to them.” House Democrats, both progressive and centrist, were even less restrained in their fury: “complete BS,” “a lousy deal,” “total failure to use leverage for anything real.”
Cracks Growing: Many lawmakers are calling for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to be removed from leadership or primaried. (An April poll found Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) leading him by double digits in a hypothetical primary.) Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), said Schumer “is no longer effective and should be replaced.”
Continued Opposition: House Democrats, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), seem poised to oppose the measure if and when it reaches their chamber. But with the GOP still in control of the House, and at least one Democrat likely to break ranks and vote for the deal, that opposition almost certainly won’t stop the deal.
Fall Guys: Notably, none of the eight Senate Democrats who broke ranks is up for reelection in 2026. Two have already announced they are retiring. One can infer, they agreed to take an unpopular vote on behalf of more vulnerable colleagues who didn’t want to risk the blowback from the base.
What’s Next? The deal has to formally pass the Senate. That could happen by tonight, but any senator could delay the process. Then it needs to pass the House; Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who’s prevented representatives from holding a vote since September 19, gave lawmakers 36 hours to return to DC. Finally, the deal needs Trump’s signature. As such, it’s unlikely the government will re-open before Wednesday.
New Voice: With Johnson finally bringing the House back in session, he’ll no longer be able to prevent lawmakers from swearing in Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ).
Bitter End: The Trump administration on Monday once again asked the Supreme Court to block lower court orders that it fully fund SNAP food benefits. Basically it’s a move to ensure Senate Democrats don’t get cold feet – and do vote to reopen government.
Sour Grapes: A judge today blocked the government from forcing states to undo SNAP payments. Long story short: in the small window between a bunch of court maneuvers, a few states started paying out SNAP benefits. The Trump administration ordered them to claw back that money. Today a judge said they will do no such thing.
Marriage Safety: The Supreme Court on Monday refused to consider overturning same-sex marriage. The Court’s refusal leaves former Kentucky county clerk Kim Davis on the hook for over $300,000, which she was ordered to pay a same-sex couple to whom she denied a marriage license. Since the landmark 2015 decision, over 400,000 same-sex couples have married.
Snail Mail: The Supreme Court did agree to rule on a high-stakes case that could have profound impacts on the 2026 and 2028 elections. At issue: are states required to count mail-in ballots that arrive after election day. Sixteen states, plus DC and Guam, count mail-in ballots that are postmarked on or before election day, even if they arrive late. These laws protect voters from mail delays; supporters argue voters have cast their ballots the moment they are postmarked. Republicans, including Trump, opposed the practice; they argue votes are only cast when the government receives them, something a conservative appeals court agreed with.
Global Influence: Trump isn’t just cowing major newsrooms in the US. The BBC’s director general and News CEO both resigned Sunday after the organization was slammed for the way it edited Trump’s Jan 6, 2021 speech. Trump accused the outlet of defamation and is threatening a billion-dollar lawsuit. How bad were the edits? See for yourself here. BBC insiders claim this was a “coup” led partly by a BBC board member tied to the UK’s Conservative party; conservatives have wanted to defund the public broadcaster for years, claiming its biased toward liberals despite it being considered the world’s most trustworthy international news outlet. Sounds familiar, no?
Pause No More: The FDA announced Monday it will remove black box safety warnings from “estrogen-related products” – basically hormone therapy used for perimenopause and menopause. For decades, they came with warnings about risks of cancer, dementia, and heart attack. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists dismissed these as an “unnecessary barrier” and celebrated the FDA’s decision — though it criticized the FDA for rushing the process and forgoing an advisory committee of independent experts when making the decision.
Wrap Up: Arctic air is set to bring frigid temperatures to most of the US, starting Monday. It will bring some of the first snow of the season — tens of millions of people are under freeze, winter weather, winter storm, or similar warnings — including possible instances of “thundersnow” near the Great Lakes and record lows in the Southeast, including Florida. Stay safe out there.
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