Dinner Table Cheat Sheet: Newsletter Extra
Key facts you can use in those unavoidable political conversations at your family gatherings.
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Hi and happy almost-Thanksgiving. On Monday, we suggested that you try to avoid political conversations at the Thanksgiving dinner table. Today, we acknowledge that for many of you, this isn’t possible. What you need are facts and sources you can use to ground your conversations and defend your positions. So we present you with this Thanksgiving cheat sheet full of information about some of the most hot button issues in the political conversation today.
We cover facts about undocumented people living in the U.S., including their economic contributions and the costs of mass deportation. We talk about the state of the economy under President Trump and President Biden, including what’s happened to prices across the board. And we include a surprising data point about high school athletics.
We wish you a Happy—and not-too-contentious—Thanksgiving.
Undocumented Immigrants
An estimated 11.3 million undocumented immigrants currently live in the United States, accounting for nearly one-quarter (24%) of the US foreign-born population
Measured in the U.S. Economy:
Since 2003, unauthorized immigrants have made up 4.4% to 5.4% of all U.S. workers.
In 2022, nearly 90% of undocumented immigrants were of working age, compared to 61.3% of the U.S.-born population aged between 16 and 64.
This makes undocumented immigrants more likely to actively participate in the labor force.
Tax Contributions:
In 2022 alone, undocumented immigrant households paid $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes.
Social Security, Medicaid, or Medicare:
Undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Social Security and Medicare benefits.
Some noncitizens can qualify for these benefits, but they must legally reside in the U.S. and meet other eligibility requirements.
Exception: Emergency Medicare
Some states do provide health benefits to undocumented immigrants, but most don’t have health coverage apart from emergency care.
Undocumented immigrants who have high enough incomes may be able to purchase private health insurance.
There is evidence that undocumented immigrants “actually improve Social Security’s bottom line.” Many undocumented workers have payroll taxes withheld from their wages even though they cannot collect benefits.
Crime Rate:
Undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes and a quarter the rate of native-born citizens for property crimes.
For the period of 2012 to 2018 in Texas, the total violent crime arrest rate was 213 per 100,000 for U.S.-born citizens and 96.2 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants.
In the same period, the total drug crime arrest rate was 337.2 per 100,000 for U.S.-born citizens and 135 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants, and the total property crime arrest rate was 165.2 per 100,000 for U.S.-born citizens and 38.5 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants.
From 2012-2018, undocumented immigrants had the lowest offending rates overall for both total felony crime and violent felony crime compared to other groups.
For drug offenses, undocumented immigrants were less than half as likely to be arrested as native-born U.S. citizens.
For the period of 2012 to 2018, the total drug crime arrest rate was 337.2 per 100,000 for U.S.-born citizens and 135 per 100,000 for undocumented immigrants.
Information on mass deportation:
Trump and his team confirmed that he plans to use the military and ICE to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. As we’ve previously discussed, doing so would be incredibly costly — morally, economically, socially, and politically.
An estimated total cost of a one-time mass deportation operation is at least $315 billion.
$89.3 billion to conduct arrests.
$167.8 billion to detain immigrants in camps.
$34.1 billion on legal processing.
$24.1 billion on removals.
Costs of maintaining an ongoing deportation regime are much higher.
Hardest hit industries: Construction (1 in 8 workers); agriculture (1 in 8 workers) and hospitality (1 in 14 workers). Undocumented workers account for 30% of plasterers, roofers, and painters, nearly 28% of graders and sorters of agriculture products, and 25% of all housekeepers.
Arresting undocumented workers would drive dramatic slowdowns in these industries as legal residents are less likely to fill the jobs because of low pay and difficult work conditions.
Some states are working to loosen child labor laws. This could allow employers to hire more children to make up for worker shortfalls.
The Economy
One major point of disagreement between the parties is the state of the economy. The data shows a mixed picture. On the one hand, employment is strong, the stock market has surged, and economic growth is healthy. On the other, high prices are making household budgets tight and the cost of living feels unsustainable for many. Here we compare key data from October 2020 —near the end of Trump’s first term—to the same data at the end of
