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I know a lot of you are stressed. You have questions about what’s happening in Iran and the consequences of the U.S. and Israeli operation. So I'm bringing you a conversation that walks through the who, the what, the why, and what comes next. If you already know the difference between the IRGC and the clerical establishment, this one probably isn’t for you. But if you want a clearer picture of what's driving this conflict and what to watch for next, this is a good place to start.
First, a quick update on where things stand.
We are on the second day of airstrikes launched by the U.S. and Israel on Iran. U.S. Central Command confirms three American service members have been killed — the first U.S. fatalities of this operation — and at least five more are seriously wounded. Trump says the campaign could last four weeks. He also says Iran’s new leadership has reached out to talk, and he’s agreed, though he wouldn’t say when that would happen. (He added that some of the negotiators the US had been dealing with were killed in yesterday’s strikes.)
Inside Iran, the picture is extraordinary. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, along with as many as 48 senior leaders taken out in the opening wave, according to Trump. Iran’s retaliation has been broad and punishing — hundreds of drones and missiles launched at U.S. bases across the Gulf, civilian infrastructure hit in Dubai and Bahrain, a missile strike near Jerusalem that killed at least nine people today. An interim council has formed in Tehran, but the succession unclear. In some neighborhoods, Iranians are grieving Khamenei’s death. In many others, and in Iran’s ex-pat communities across the world, there is dancing and cheering. Polling by the Netherlands-based GAMAAN Institute shows that 70% of Iranians inside the country oppose the regime. On Capitol Hill, Democrats say the president has no plan for what comes after and no authority to have started this in the first place. A war powers vote is expected this week.
There is a lot to absorb. I sat down with Marie Harf — former CIA analyst specializing in the Middle East, former State Department spokesperson, and comms lead on the Iran nuclear deal. We talk about why the U.S. and Israel struck now, when Iran was at its weakest point in 47 years. What Iran’s decision to hit Gulf countries tells us, whether regime collapse is realistic, and if Americans should worry about retaliation here at home. She also answers the question I keep getting from so many of you: is this the start of World War III. (Her view: No.)
Check it out. We’ll continue covering this throughout the week. Please send in your questions.
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