It Could Have Been an Email
Trump and Putin's summit ends with a vague "agreement" but few details. Next stop: Moscow? We cover things you may have missed and what this meeting means for the future. Plus the News Not Noise Quiz.
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President Trump flew to Alaska today to meet with Vladimir Putin for nearly three hours of talks aimed at securing a ceasefire in Ukraine. He left with no deal, no ceasefire, and no clear path to one.
On the flight over, Trump told Fox News he expected progress and would be unhappy if they didn't reach a deal. Guess he flew home unhappy.
The summit ended early — they blew off a planned lunch and went straight to a press conference instead. Putin alluded to having reached some kind of "agreement" and made vague references to Russia's "legitimate concerns" and territorial claims. Trump declared the meeting "very productive" and said they'd made "some headway" but offered zero specifics. "There's no deal until there's a deal," he said, which is the kind of thing you say when there is definitely no deal.
It was like an odd buddy movie, and seemingly a win for Putin.
The meeting gave Putin recognition on the world stage and equal billing with the U.S. president, complete with red-carpet treatment. He’s so far escaped the new sanctions Trump had threatened, avoided committing to a ceasefire, and got a chance to invite Trump to a meeting in Moscow (which Trump laughed off).
What did the U.S. get? Unclear.
For Ukraine, this might actually be a win. Trump seemingly didn't give up land or make an agreement that would force them to break with the U.S. (Is it possible we should credit Secretary of State Marco Rubio for this? He and envoy Steve Witkoff were announced as late additions to the negotiations with Putin’s team.)
Trump said there are "just a very few" points left to resolve, with "one" being "probably the most significant." He didn't say what that one thing was, naturally.
Maybe this was never about the press conference. Putin got a one-on-one with Trump in the limo; they could be seen chatting and laughing — no aides present. We don’t know what was discussed.
The whole thing really could have been an email. Or, apparently, a car ride.
The Art of “No Deal”:
Much Ado About…Nothing: President Trump declared he and Putin made “great progress” in their Alaska meeting today — but made no deal. In fact, neither Trump nor Putin mentioned concrete agreement on any issue, let alone the ongoing war in Ukraine. “Many points were agreed to,” Trump said in his three-minute long speech. “There are just a very few that are left.” Neither Trump nor Putin, who took the US president’s usual duty of opening the news conference, answered any questions.
Trump’s Focus: Speaking at the press conference, Trump barely mentioned a ceasefire. Instead, he bemoaned the fact that his “fantastic relationship” with Putin was “interfered with by the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax” — and generally avoided saying anything specific.
Putin’s Focus: In his remarks, Putin maintained his hardline stance on Ukraine. To reach a “lasting and long-term” deal, he said, “we need to eliminate all of the primary causes of the conflict.” His demands include a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the regions Russia claims, over one-fifth of Ukraine’s total territory, which Ukraine has dismissed as unacceptable.
Strategic Win: Putin asked for this meeting on the eve of a deadline Trump had set for Russia to agree to a ceasefire. Was this a clever way for Putin to avoid the sanctions Trump threatened? They haven’t been imposed.
Sweet Nothings? Putin insisted that, like Trump, he is “ready to work on” ensuring “the security of Ukraine,” while conceding nothing. And, perhaps more importantly for Trump, Putin went out of his way to say he wouldn’t have invaded in 2022 if Trump were president — implicitly blaming Biden for the conflict and playing one of Trump’s favorite tunes.
What’s Next: Another meeting, it seems. Putin invited Trump to Moscow. “I’ll get a little heat on that one,” Trump said, laughing somewhat nervously. “But I could see it possibly happening.” Trump said he’ll spend the flight home calling Western leaders, including Zelenskyy, to update them on his conversations with Putin — perhaps one reason he didn’t share details with the public. “It’s ultimately up to them,” Trump said. That’s obviously true, but important to hear from the president. More importantly — no ceasefire, and the brutal war continues.
Putin’s Worldview: Putin has repeatedly tried to convince the world that his invasion of Ukraine is justified. Today he touched on some of the main points of his propaganda, which may be familiar to any watchers of Russian state TV or the Tucker Carlson show.
Alternative Facts: Ukraine, if you believe Putin, is not a legitimate state. Putin claims that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people,” with the former being convinced to set up their own nation in the 20th century by the Polish. That nation, Putin claims, is currently led by “Nazis,” who must be removed from power. (Ukraine’s president is Jewish.) And, he argued, Ukraine’s decision to move closer to the EU and NATO is an unacceptable provocation that undermines Russian security.
However: Putin’s history has convinced millions. But it’s more propaganda than fact. Ukrainians have had a distinct culture and identity for centuries. NATO, the US-led military alliance, has expanded eastward over the decades, and Ukraine expressed interest in joining. But countries join out of their own choice, and have historically done so out of fear of Russian aggression. Sweden and Finland, for example, only joined the alliance in 2022 — after Russia invaded Ukraine. Many consider Putin’s arguments far from enough to justify an invasion that has caused almost 1.5 million casualties.
Nuclear Context: In 1991, a newly independent Ukraine gave its nuclear weapons to Russia in return for promises it would not be invaded. But in 2014, Putin occupied the Crimean peninsula. Russian-backed separatists then pulled parts of eastern Ukraine into a protracted war. And in 2022, Putin launched his invasion. Ukraine’s experience has been read as a lesson to other world leaders: nuclear weapons are unmatched deterrence.
Where Things Stand: Russia initially made huge gains in their invasion of Ukraine. But Ukraine halted the advance and regained much of its north. Russia still occupies about 20% of Ukraine, though it has made recent gains. This matters because, prior to today’s meeting, Trump has said there could be a “land swap” between Russia and Ukraine. For some maps demonstrating the situation, see here. If you prefer your maps interactive, go here.
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We’ve Been Here Before: Remember Trump’s 2018 closed-door meeting with Putin in Helsinki. The BBC retrospectively called this “the most overt public display of friendliness” between the two leaders. When Trump was asked whether he believed US intelligence agencies, which claimed Russia meddled in the 2016 election, or Putin, who protested innocence, Trump infamously sided with Putin. Is that why Trump was accompanied by two senior aides this time?
War in Numbers: Let’s break down some key statistics. Both sides make it difficult to verify many figures, so the following are mostly estimates.
Russia’s Toll:
Human: Over one million casualties. Up to 250,000 dead. Fatalities over the last three years are already 15 times larger than during the Soviet Union’s lost war in Afghanistan, which contributed to the superpower’s breakdown.
Military: Thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft, drones, and other hardware destroyed or lost. The ratio of Russia’s equipment losses compared to Ukraine’s is between 2:1 and 5:1 in Ukraine’s favor.
Economic: Russia’s economy has proved resilient, though the country’s economy minister recently warned of a looming recession. Ukraine currently controls no Russian territory.
Ukraine’s Toll:
Human: Around 400,000 casualties, of which up to 100,000 are deaths. At least 13,883 civilians killed, including 726 children, and many more injured.
Kids: Russia has systematically removed over 19,000 children from Ukraine, subjecting them to “re-education” in order to disconnect them from their Ukrainian identity. Victims have been cut off from their families in Ukraine and, in some cases, physically abused.
Military: The EU has allocated over $195 billion in aid to Ukraine, with another $105 billion waiting to be allocated. The US has allocated about $135 billion. Last week five European nations collectively pledged $1.5 billion to buy US weapons for Ukraine.
Economic: GDP initially collapsed by almost one-third after Russia’s invasion, but has grown since. Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine, where 3.5 million people live under occupation.
News Not Noise Quiz
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