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It's been 72 hours since the Trump administration launched "Operation Midnight Hammer"—a massive military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities—and I know many of you are feeling anxious about what this all means. I've been getting messages asking: Are we heading toward World War III? Why did the US do this now? Should I be worried about my family's safety?
To help us understand this moment, I sat down with Jeremy Bash, who served as chief of staff at both the Department of Defense and CIA under President Obama. Jeremy explains everything with deep expertise and in a way that makes sense, even if you're new to these issues.
Jeremy gives multiple perspectives. He walks through both the strategic reasoning behind the strike and the serious arguments against it. He helps us understand how we got here, what Iran's nuclear program actually looks like, and—crucially—what we should be watching for in the coming days and weeks.
I won't lie to you: this reflects a serious national security perspective on why preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons matters. If you oppose military action under any circumstances, this conversation might not align with your views. But no matter your view, you'll learn something important about how national security professionals think about these incredibly difficult decisions.
Most importantly, Jeremy addresses the fears so many of us have—about economic impacts, terrorism at home, fears of a US draft (unfounded), and whether this could spiral into something much bigger. He gives us the context we need to separate genuine concerns from unfounded panic.
Note: The conversation was recorded Sunday night. Jeremy’s analysis holds and I would encourage everyone to take the time to listen to this discussion. It is free to everyone.
In the brief newsletter below we report the events that have transpired with Iran today. Most of that is for paid subscribers.
We will get back to the rest of the news on Wednesday.
Updates on the Conflict With Iran:
BREAKING: Trump just announced on Truth Social that Israel and Iran have "fully agreed" to a "Complete and Total CEASEFIRE," set to take effect around midnight tonight. This surprising post contains no details about crucial issues that will determine whether a temporary ceasefire could lead to lasting peace. Among the issues: what the intelligence says about the damage to Iran's nuclear program; if nuclear material remains, is Iran willing to give up its nuclear enrichment program entirely; and what each side requires for a negotiated agreement. Without answers to these fundamental questions, this could be an effort to encourage a ceasefire—but it's unclear whether it would lead to true détente or simply a temporary pause in hostilities.
Return Fire: Today Iran launched a reprisal attack against the US that’s raised questions about whether they’re looking to de-escalate tensions. They fired multiple short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in the direction of a US military base in Qatar today. But Iran gave Qatar advanced warning of the attack; Qatar’s air defenses and US forces intercepted the missiles. There were no casualties. The US was also aware of the attack in advance, and reported minimal damage to the base. This suggests Iran may have been looking to answer the US’ attack in a way that did not lead to US retaliation and a larger conflict. According to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the number of missiles fired was equal to the number of bombs used by the US in its strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday.
