New York to California: First Big Test of the Trump Agenda Hits the Ballot Box
We break down which elections to watch. Plus: Conversation with EMILYs List President Jessica Mackler. Good news for SNAP recipients. ICE wants to scan your face. And a home run for diversity.
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Election Day is tomorrow. Do you have a voting plan — the time and place you’ll vote, maybe a Post-it note reminding you where you left that mail-in ballot? Research shows the ritual of making a plan increases turnout. My ballot’s sitting on my desk. I’ll drop it off tonight, right after hitting send on this newsletter, because nothing says civic virtue like squeezing in democracy between emails.
This is the first major election since Trump took office, which means the political class will dissect it as a bellwether for the midterms. They always do this. It’s always overdone. Elections are local. But patterns do emerge.
One narrative you’ll hear: this is the Mamdani election, proof the Democratic party has lurched toward next-gen progressives. But there’s another way to see this election, equally plausible: two centrist women with serious national security credentials — Abigail Spanberger running for governor in Virginia, Mikie Sherrill running for governor in New Jersey — are leading their races. Are these dueling visions of what wins? Or is this the big tent party in action? Let’s see the results then decide.
I talked through these races with Emily’s List President Jessica Mackler, whose organization exists to elect pro-choice Democratic women. Women are poised to achieve some firsts this cycle. Mackler discusses what’s really driving voters and what’s at stake in the races where Emily’s List has endorsed – in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas. I also ask her why backing women for office matters now. Watch that interview below.
Below, we also cover some much-needed (albeit qualified) good news for SNAP recipients; an update on Trump’s nuclear testing; and why ICE might want to scan your face. Plus some News That Doesn’t Suck for fans of baseball (or comeback stories).
Interview: Jessica Mackler of EMILYs List
Democracy In Action
Decision Time: Millions across the country are casting their votes in a slate of crucial elections. Mayors, governors, state supreme court justices, redistricting — these races will demonstrate how people feel about Trump’s agenda, determine how far his administration can pursue that agenda, and show us what to expect in next year’s crucial midterms. We cover some key details from several of the most important races below. For more context and analysis, watch my interview with EMILYs List President Jessica Mackler at the top of this newsletter.
Topline: Democrats are hoping to bounce back from last year’s disaster and overcome near-historic unfavorability ratings. They have some momentum, as the party out of power usually does: Democrats excelled in dozens of special elections this year; polls suggest Democrat-leaning voters are significantly more motivated to vote in 2026, despite viewing their party less favorably than Republicans; and, perhaps most importantly if these elections are truly about Trump, a new CNN poll puts the president’s disapproval rating at 63%, the highest of any point in both his terms.
Big Apple: Over 735,000 New Yorkers cast early ballots in the mayoral race, the highest in-person turnout for a nonpresidential election in the city’s history. Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani remains the clear favorite, despite millions of dollars in last-minute attack ads against him. Most of that money came from groups supporting former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is banking on moderates holding their nose over his past scandals and voting for him to stop Mamdani’s progressive agenda. That’s a tough choice for many of the city’s Jewish residents, who view Mamdani’s sharp criticism of Israel as antisemitic, argue he is a threat to Jews’ safety, and aren’t convinced by his overtures to the community or support from progressive Jews. Cuomo’s closing message was more of a warning, focusing on these fears and others related to Mamdani’s inexperience and policy proposals; Mamdani remained focused on his promise to bring down the cost of living for New Yorkers, though he never missed a chance to dunk on Cuomo for his own offenses. Then there’s charismatic Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa, who remains in the race — potentially splitting the moderate vote — despite having essentially no chance of winning and significant pressure from top Republicans and wealthy donors to drop out.
Endorsements: Establishment Democrats have been slow to support Mamdani, with some refusing to do so officially. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) qualified his last-minute endorsement by insisting Sunday the mayoral candidate is not the future of the party. Former President Barack Obama, who also has not endorsed, called Mamdani Saturday, and leaked word that he finds his campaign “impressive. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) hasn’t endorsed Mamdani. Cuomo, meanwhile, has received the endorsement of the city’s wealthiest donors — and a tepid last-minute endorsement from Trump, much to Mamdani’s delight. In a Truth Social post today, Trump told voters, “whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him.” This follows his comment Sunday that he would choose a “bad Democrat” over a “communist.”
That’s a New One: Republicans in New York and Washington are reportedly pursuing ways to prevent Mamdani from taking office if he wins. Their plans include stripping him of his citizenship and barring him from office as an insurrectionist.
Eye for an Eye: California voters seem poised to approve Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting measure, Prop 50. It would gerrymander the state’s voting map to give Democrats up to five seats in the US House, a direct response to the GOP’s own gerrymandered maps in states like Texas and Missouri. That’s exactly how Democrats presented the measure, and it seems to have resonated with voters. “We can’t play the game like decent people anymore,” one voter told NPR. “Those rules are out the window. So we have to do what we have to do.”
Watchful Eye: Trump’s DOJ is sending election monitors to five California counties (and one in New Jersey) at the request of local Republicans “to ensure transparency, ballot security, and compliance with federal law.” Newsom slammed the move as “voter intimidation” and state Attorney General Rob Bonta said California will deploy its own observers to watch the DOJ’s monitors. Sending election monitors isn’t itself unusual. Democratic presidents have done it, and monitors aren’t allowed to interact with voters or poll workers. But it is unusual to send monitors to a non-federal election, like California’s, and critics are worried the administration might not follow the rules or use the monitors to baselessly challenge the results of the election.
Glass Ceiling, Begone: No matter what happens Tuesday, Virginia is set to have its first-ever female governor. Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger holds a comfortable lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. In part, that’s because the state’s 320,000 federal workers (and many more federal contractors) are furious about DOGE cuts and shutdown layoffs, which have cost thousands of residents their jobs. A majority of Virginians strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance; Trump only informally endorsed Earle-Sears, but she’s spoken in favor of him and his policies. Earle-Sears has leaned into anti-trans messaging, making it one of her central closing arguments (and amplifying it with millions of dollars in attack ads.) Interestingly, that worked for outgoing Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in 2021, but voters currently seem more concerned about the economy and democracy — which Spanberger has focused on.
Litmus Test: If Spanberger wins, her tactic of tying pocketbook issues and anxiety about the chaos of our world directly to Trump’s policies could become the Democratic playbook in 2026. Virginians are suffering (or will suffer) from tariffs — cargo traffic at the Port of Virginia, one of the country’s busiest, has dropped sharply — inflation, and healthcare costs. We discuss her strategy and how it might inform Democrats’ midterm message in the interview at the top of this newsletter.
Electric Race: In New Jersey, Democratic hopes lie with another moderate woman, Rep. Mikie Sherrill. She has a narrow lead; her Trump-endorsed opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, is close behind in his third run for governor. Having once dismissed Trump as a “charlatan,” Ciattarelli has now gone full MAGA — or, in Trump’s words, “has gone ALL IN, and is now 100% (PLUS!).” New Jersey stayed blue in the 2024 presidential election, but had one of the largest swings toward Trump in the entire country; the state has a habit of picking Republican governors, especially when the incumbent is Democratic; the current governor, Phil Murphy, is somewhat unpopular, and polls that show him with a lower approval rating also show Ciattarelli with the best chance of winning. His unpopularity comes in part from the state’s sharply rising energy costs; Sherrill said she will freeze utility rates on her first day in office. Ciattarelli’s performance could determine whether Trump is still the ticket to electoral success — or is an anchor.
Supreme Vote: In Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to keep three Democratic state Supreme Court Justices for another decade-long term — or remove them, leaving the Court with an even partisan split and effectively unable to set precedents for the state. I discuss this in the conversation with Jessica Mackler above, as well as the roles abortion access, women candidates, questions of affordability, and threats to democracy are playing in these races.
Other Headlines
Half Portions: Qualified good news for SNAP recipients. The Trump administration announced Monday it will use USDA contingency funds to pay SNAP benefits in November — but recipients will only receive only half their normal amount. That’s because officials won’t tap additional funds. Also, the reduced benefits will be delayed as states have to recode their systems to process the changes. The administration warned that in some states this process could take “up to several months.” It also said it will not reimburse states using their own funds to help residents. Remember, the average SNAP benefit per person is about $187 a month.
Women and Kids: On the other hand, the administration found $450 million in additional funds for the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children. They used money from tariffs. It’s enough to fully fund the program for about three weeks. A policy director at a nonprofit supporting the program said they are “really grateful” for the extra money, “but we absolutely need long-term certainty.”
The following content — including a judge’s new ruling on National Guard troops in Oregon, Trump’s not-so-nuclear testing, why ICE might still detain you even if you have proper identification, and News That Doesn’t Suck on the immigrants that made the Dodgers winners (again) — is for paid subscribers only. Thank you for your support! You make our work possible.
