The News Not Noise Election Day Cheat Sheet

What you need to know as the results come in.

The day has arrived. News Not Noise proudly presents our 2024 Election Cheat Sheet: Your guide to Election Day.

This is meant to help you follow election night coverage in a way that makes sense. We include poll closing times and when results were called in 2020, so you have a sense of which states are likely to be called early or late. We also show you what happened in each state in 2020, the election laws that have changed since then, and key counties — and Senate races — to watch. 

All times are Eastern. And Georgia’s polls just closed. Results will start coming in soon.

I’m on air as part of Brian Williams’ Election Night special on Amazon Prime. It already started and will go all night. Join me there and on Instagram!

Senate Races to Watch

The following are the races that could decide the balance of power in the Senate.

• Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Republican Kari Lake (R)

• Florida: Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) vs. incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R)

• Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. former Rep. Mike Rogers (R)

• Maryland: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) vs. former Gov Larry Hogan (R)

• Montana: Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Republican Tim Sheehy (R)

• Ohio: Incumbent Sen Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Bernie Moreno (R)

• Nebraska: Dan Osborn (Independent) vs. incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

• Nevada: Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Republican Sam Brown (R)

• Pennsylvania: Incumbent Sen Bob Casey (D) vs. Dave McCormick (R)

• Texas: Rep. Colin Allred (D) vs. incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R)

• Wisconsin: Incumbent Sen Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)

The States

We list the poll closing times and the counties you want to watch. The returns reported in those counties will tell an early story.

• 6 p.m.

  • States: Indiana, Kentucky

  • Counties to Watch: Hamilton, IN

    • If Harris meets or beats Biden’s margins in these red states — especially in suburban counties — she might be on track for victory.

• 7 p.m.

  • Key states: Georgia, Virginia, Florida

    • Virginia and Florida lean blue and red, respectively; an upset in either would be a surprise.

  • Counties to Watch: Roanoke, VA

    • Trump carried Roanoke by 22% in 2020; an improvement there would be a sign rural areas across the country are delivering for him.

  • Battleground State — Georgia

    • Timing: Officials are allowed to begin counting early ballots before election day. Georgia is expected to be among the first states to report results.

    • 2020 Recap:

      • Who Won: Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992. He beat Trump by just 11,779 votes, a margin of less than 0.25%. Attempts by Trump and his allies to overturn the results are the subject of an ongoing criminal case in Fulton County.

      • When We Knew:

        • First votes were reported at 7:20 p.m.

        • By midnight, 77% of total votes cast were reported.

        • AP called the race at 7:58 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 19. A recount delayed AP’s certification.

    • What’s Changed: Georgia has passed more than a dozen laws making it more difficult to vote and easier to interfere in the election. More info here.

    • Counties to Watch: The Atlanta suburbs: Cobb, Forsyth, and Cherokee. All have trended toward the Democrats in recent years. If Harris can win over the mainly white, highly educated suburban voters in these three counties — and score big in Fulton, which is home to Atlanta itself — she’ll have a good chance of carrying the state.