The News Not Noise Letter: All Eyes on Iran
The US vows to defend Israel from Tehran’s threatened attack – as Iran warns the US against intervening. Plus: GOP at odds over abortion bans.
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As we send the newsletter tonight, US and Israeli forces are on high alert for an expected reprisal strike by the Islamic Republic of Iran. I shared this on Instagram and it bears repeating here. In moments of high stakes news like this, I think my job is as follows.
Identify the news and separate it from the noise you can ignore.
Put this news in context so you better understand how decision makers think — and define jargon.
Keep you calm without sugar coating reality.
Help you understand the “why” – potential consequences, what could come next and/or how these events impact you.
Right now, the hardest part for me is #3. An Iranian airstrike on Israel would be an unprecedented and extraordinary development. It would create dangerous dynamics in the Middle East that could draw us into a larger war – but for that to happen, a lot would have to break a certain way.
They call this a “moment of historical contingency” — which means we face a potentially consequential turning point, where no outcome is inevitable, and the ultimate end depends on a multitude of interrelated actions that haven’t yet taken place. What we report below could lead to a crisis or it could be forgotten in days. It just depends. Still, we think it’s important to share this reporting so you are prepared with the information if you need it. We’ve made some of this Iran reporting available to everyone; additional reporting about the US’s role is behind a paywall. It’s how we pay our bills. Please consider subscribing if you can. First, we share non-Middle East headlines.
Here are your headlines:
Arizona Abortion Schism: Arizona’s Republican party remains tied in knots over the recent state Supreme Court decision to let a Civil War-era abortion ban stand. The controversy is scrambling alliances, with Trump and GOP candidate for governor Kari Lake aligned against some of the most conservative elements of their own party. Today VP Harris is in Arizona, where she said the state Court’s decision “demonstrated once and for all that overturning Roe was just the opening act of a larger strategy” to restrict abortion nationwide and told voters “Former President Donald Trump did this.” Meanwhile state Democrats are working to get a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion protections on the November ballot.
Presidential Criminal Trial: Here’s your reminder that next week Donald Trump will be on trial. Jury selection begins Monday in the first-ever criminal trial of a former US President. Trump stands accused of illegally paying porn star Stormy Daniels “hush money” during the 2016 election then trying to cover up the payments. Here’s a guide we wrote on Trump’s various legal woes, including this case.
House Approves FISA: Security versus privacy, it’s a classic tension. It was debated again this week on Capitol Hill, as the House struggled to approve a controversial renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). FISA was first passed after Watergate, in 1978, to regulate how US intelligence agencies can and can’t legally collect intelligence, while protecting US citizens’ privacy. Section 702 was added after 9/11. It lets the US conduct surveillance on the communications of non-citizens abroad if they’re suspected of being national security threats. The dilemma: what to do when US citizens interact with those non-US suspects? That’s a cause of fierce debate. Opponents say the law goes too far and a warrant should be required to search citizens’ communications. National Security Spokesperson John Kirby disagreed, saying the current law is “vital to our ability to defend ourselves.” Reportedly 60% of the intelligence in the Presidential Daily Briefing comes from Section 702. Despite opposition, including from former President Trump, the House managed to pass the legislation. It has to get through the Senate before its April 19 renewal deadline.
Iran’s Retaliation: “Sooner than later”
Israeli and US forces in the Middle East are on high alert for an expected retaliatory strike against Israel by Iran or its proxies. Speaking to reporters today President Biden said he expects that attack “sooner than later,” and his message for Iran was simply, “don’t.” Reuters reports that Iran has told intermediaries it intends to launch a “controlled” response that will be “non-escalatory”, seeking revenge without drawing the US into the fight or opening a wider war. That is a delicate line to walk. Here’s what we know at this hour:
“It’s as if they attacked our soil”: Iran’s Supreme Leader this week declared that Israel “must be punished” and suggested that punishment will hit Israel itself – i.e., not an asset or compound far away. Axios reports that, through intermediaries, Iran warned the Biden administration that Iran will consider US forces and assets fair game if the US military protects Israel. Intelligence sources believe that the response could come from both Iran and proxy forces in the region, and combine more than 100 drones and dozens of ballistic or cruise missiles aimed at military targets inside the country. It’s not expected that Israel’s missile defense system would protect it against a barrage of this scale.
Israel Threatens Reprisal: Israeli officials have given citizens no new instructions to prepare for war, but families are making emergency preparations. Prime Minister Netanyahu is threatening to return fire on Iranian soil if Israel is attacked, saying, “Whoever harms us, we will harm them.” And the IDF says they have “approved plans for a variety of scenarios of an Iranian attack.”