The News Not Noise Letter: Bear (Cub) Market
Stocks struggle as world waits for Iran’s next move. Plus: RFK Jr.’s totally relatable story and Nikki Haley voters have questions.
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Happy Monday. At this moment we don’t know if we’re on the cusp of a regional war in the Middle East and a major economic shock at home – or if both stories are blips on a news radar that will fill with different crises next week. Vice President Harris is set to announce her running mate Tuesday before the two embark on a tour of battleground states. Sources tell me Harris has winnowed her choices to Minnesota’s Governor Walz and Pennsylvania’s Governor Shapiro. Shapiro was favored going into the weekend; the rumor tonight is that she’s picked Walz. The campaign denies she’s made a selection. I’m not placing any bets. We’ll know soon enough. At the end of this newsletter we’ll share with you the views of some Nikki Haley voters in this audience, and why they’re not yet sold on Harris.
Here are your headlines:
Stock Scare: Monday was a rough day for investors worldwide – all three major US indexes slid today, with the Dow falling more than 1000 points. This, after the Nikkei dropped more than 12% in Tokyo’s worst single-day fall since 1987. Cryptocurrency like Bitcoin and Etherium plunged in value as well. Some of the selloff was prompted by the weak July US jobs report, spurring panicked headlines about a possible recession. There are other factors too – anticipation of wider conflict in the Middle East (more below) and the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise rates also likely played a role. Before you panic, the head of the Chicago Fed said the situation is “not looking yet like recession.” What’s going on? Try to remember that the stock market has gone through periods of extreme volatility in recent years. Many of the places that are blaring headlines about recession this week were boasting about a soft landing weeks earlier. And for now, it still remains the case that GDP and employment and the stock market are up since the end of lockdown. (And as a political matter – higher under Biden than Trump.)
Middle East: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “Today, the Middle East is at a critical moment,” and that Washington and allies are engaged in diplomacy there “pretty much around the clock.”
War is Coming: In a strange game of wartime “Operator,” Israel’s foreign minister says he was informed by the foreign minister of Hungary that Iran is planning to launch a direct attack on Israel. The US has warned that the attack could come any time now. And Israel has messaged that they are prepared to transition to offense.
Coalition to Defend: The coalition that rebuffed Iran’s April assault appears to be intact. The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Jordan reportedly told Iran they won’t allow Iran’s missiles or drones to pass through their airspace in an attack on Israel (diplomatic speak for – they’ll shoot them down).
US War Planning: At the White House President Biden and VP Harris met with their national security team today while the top US military commander for the Middle East Gen. Erik Kurilla met with in Israel with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to coordinate defense strategy. The US has sent more fighter jets and warships to the region.
Hezbollah: Israel is expecting the attack to come from both Iran and from Hezbollah, which is believed to have enough rockets to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome and cause significant damage.
Preemptive Strike: There are reports Israel’s PM Netanyahu is considering a preemptive strike on Iran.
Hostage/Ceasefire Deal: The US is still determined to achieve a hostage-for-ceasefire deal, now with heightened urgency in the hopes it could defuse a regional powderkeg as Iran’s threatened attack looms.
US Exposed in Iraq: And several US troops were reportedly injured after two rockets struck a US base in Iraq Monday. No group has yet claimed responsibility, though Iran-backed militias in the region have launched similar attacks in recent weeks.
Google Monopoly: Have you ever noticed that anytime you get a new phone, whether it’s Apple or Android, the default search browser is Google? That’s on purpose – and a federal court just ruled it’s illegal. In a major antitrust ruling, a judge found Google violated antitrust law by paying billions of dollars to Apple, Samsung, and other companies to make Google Search the default search engine in their web browsers, locking out competitors. Google is expected to appeal the ruling, which could impact a string of other Big Tech antitrust cases currently in process.
Campaign News:
VP: Harris met with potential running mates this weekend. As we wait for her final announcement, here’s a look at what MN Gov. Tim Walz and PA Gov. Josh Shapiro are doing this evening.
Trump Updates: On the campaign trail today, former President Trump sat for an interview with 23-year-old controversial gamer Adin Ross who gave Trump a Cybertruck and broadcast the interview on gaming platform Kick, a sign of the changing times. In case you somehow missed this, over the weekend Trump congratulated Vladimir Putin for the historic prisoner swap without mentioning any of the four wrongfully-detained Americans who were returned to the US. He also attacked Georgia’s popular Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and his wife; apparently he’s still upset that Kemp refused to help Trump overturn the 2020 election results.
Vance Tour: Today Fox News aired an interview with JD Vance’s wife Usha, in which she dismissed Vance’s comments about childfree cat ladies as a “quip,” but failed to explain why he’s doubled down on it. Team Trump also announced Vance will be shadowing Kamala Harris on her swing state tour, making campaign stops in the same states on the same days as Harris and her VP pick.
RFK Bear: I imagine by now you’ve read about RFK and his creepy story of transporting a dead baby bear to New York City’s Central Park where he staged a crime scene ten years ago. Lots of you are asking why he made a video about this (and yes, that’s Roseanne Barr with him). Backstory: The New Yorker magazine published an article about this today and RFK posted the video to share his “side” of the story first. Worth noting: The presidential candidate said he came upon the bear after it was hit by a car. But real-time reports said the bear also had stab and slash wounds. According to the CDC, eating raw bear meat can give you brain worms, seriously.🪱
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Haley Voters’ Questions for Harris
For VP Harris to win, she’ll need a broad coalition that includes swing voters – especially suburban Republicans who hate Trump but also didn’t like Biden. This describes many in this audience. Over the weekend on Instagram we polled Nikki Haley supporters. We asked those who are leaning towards voting Harris – what they want to know before deciding:
