The News Not Noise Letter: Don't Bring a Whale Head to a Mic Fight
The News Not Noise Letter: Don't Bring a Whale Head to a Mic Fight
RFK Jr. makes waves as Harris and Trump debate their debate rules. Plus: what the polls are showing now, and France arrests Russia's Zuckerberg.
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I acknowledge that it’s hard sometimes to separate the news from the noise. For example, it’s news that RFK Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed former President Donald Trump. I’ll explain why in a moment. But is it also news that Kennedy reportedly beheaded a whale and attached it to the roof of the family car with his then-young children inside? (This is new information to us too… read more here if you dare.) We want to know your point of view: is RFK Jr./dead animal material news or noise?
But we digress. Lots of you are asking how Kennedy’s decision to drop out and endorse Trump impacts the race.
It could be meaningful. In a very close race – where 1% in a state can decide the winner – third-party candidates can change the outcome of the election. In 2000, Ralph Nader won 97,844 votes in Florida, and Al Gore lost the state to George W. Bush by just 537 votes. In 2016, Jill Stein got 51,463 votes in Michigan and Hillary Clinton lost the state to Trump by 10,704 votes. Will Kennedy’s voters follow him to Trump? It’s possible they backed RFK Jr as an alternative to the establishment candidates and therefore won’t move to Trump. But if enough fall in line, and the totals are very close – in theory RFK Jr’s support could make the difference in key states. It’s too soon to know. We wonder about this, though: RFK’s vowing to MAHA – Make America Healthy Again. We have some questions about taking health advice from the brain worm guy with the carcass habit.
Other third-party candidates remain in the race and just today won some important victories in their fights to stay on the ballot in key swing states.
Here are your headlines:
Debate Updates: Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are set to debate on ABC News on September 10 – if they can agree on rules. The dispute is over microphones. Biden/Trump had agreed to mute microphones between answers. But that helped Trump appear disciplined in the last debate. The Harris campaign is now requesting to keep mics on. The Trump campaign wants to stick to the previous rules. The wrench: Trump himself told reporters that “I’d rather have it probably on,” defying his campaign’s message – but he also threatened to skip the debate, accusing ABC of being “biased.” This is so 2024.
Post-Convention Calm: If you’re anticipating a shake-up that might slow the Harris-Walz momentum, it hasn’t happened yet.
Bus Tour: Harris and Gov. Tim Walz launch a bus tour in south Georgia Wednesday, now that the state is back in play. It’s a must-win for Trump, not for Harris (though it would ease her path to 270). Visiting guarantees Harris/Walz local TV news coverage – which is free PR to hard-to-reach voters. It also forces Trump/Vance to spend time and money shoring up Georgia when they’d rather focus on Democrats’ must-win states.
Fundraising Haul: The Harris/Walz campaign brought in $540 million since launching, including $82 million raised during the week of the DNC.
Market Highs: The Dow closed at a record high today after the Fed teased upcoming interest rate cuts. Expect Harris to campaign on thriving markets.
Interview Coming: The press is annoyed that VP Harris hasn’t sat for an interview with a tough, respected journalist. Their point: this is how a presidential candidate pressure tests ideas, and granting interviews takes the pressure off any one bad media encounter. (She’s stumbled in past interviews.) Harris and the campaign say she will grant an interview soon.
Republicans for Harris: Over 200 Republicans who worked for former President George W. Bush, Sen. John McCain, and/or Sen. Mitt Romney today released an open letter endorsing Harris. They called on Republicans and independents to “take a brave stand once more.”
From the Trump/Vance Bubble:
Afghanistan Anniversary: Today Trump highlighted the third anniversary of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. His campaign is tying Harris to the chaotic withdrawal and pushing a new national security ad declaring Trump “kept us out of endless wars” through “unyielding strength.”
Trump’s Swing Tour: Trump is hosting events this week in the Democrats’ must-win states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. His team says he’ll intensify his campaign schedule after Labor Day with near-daily events through November. In a sign of the times, he’s started posting more on X (10 times yesterday!) and granting interviews to more right-leaning content creators. His messages remain, shall we say, undisciplined.
Tulsi Endorsement: Former Democratic Sen. Tulsi Gabbard endorsed Trump today.
Vance’s Donut Debacle: ICYMI, last week Sen. JD Vance was filmed ordering donuts at a shop in Georgia, and people are roasting the encounter as “an awkward disaster,” “cringe,” and reason for Vance to “fire your whole team.” He’s also raising eyebrows for saying his wife Usha “has three kids.” So much for co-parenting?
Vance on Abortion: Vance said Trump would veto a national abortion ban if it came across his desk.
Space National Guard: Trump promised today to create a Space National Guard if re-elected. We’re just going to leave that there.
Reading the Polls: It’s too soon to talk about a post-DNC bounce, but new polling shows Harris pulling ahead in her must-win states. These numbers are based on an NPR analysis combining the results of the latest high-quality polls. Know this: the race remains extremely tight.
Rust Belt: Harris pulled ahead to a 3-point lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, with a tiny 1-point lead in must-win Pennsylvania. Trump could still catch up.
Sun Belt: Harris is gaining ground in the Sun Belt, though Trump maintains a narrow lead. NPR rates Nevada, North Carolina, and Arizona as “toss-up” states — a change since Harris entered the race. Trump maintains a 2-point lead in Georgia.
What It Means: Harris is opening up more potential paths to reach 270 electoral votes to win. Harris has momentum but Trump has a more favorable map. Here’s a reminder: polls are a useful tool to track changing dynamics, not a way to predict outcomes. In other words, watch how each candidate gains or loses in certain states or with specific demographics.
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Israel/Hezbollah: Israel and Hezbollah have pulled back from the brink of serious escalation, for now. Here’s what happened: On Sunday, Israel preemptively launched airstrikes on military targets in Lebanon; they say intelligence indicated Hezbollah was planning to fire rockets and drones into populated areas. Hezbollah responded by firing 320 rockets and drones at Israeli military sites, which they say was retribution for Israel’s killing of a top Hezbollah commander. Hezbollah then announced the strikes were “finished for the day,” and Israel reduced the frequency/intensity of its strikes. Israel says the situation is “unsustainable” with tens of thousands displaced by Hezbollah rockets, and Iran still has not launched its threatened retaliatory strike. In other words, the region remains a tinderbox.
Gaza Negotiations: Meanwhile, hostage/ceasefire talks are continuing this week in Cairo. White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby said negotiators are working on the “finer details.” The top US general was in the region over the weekend, pressing for a deal.
Taliban Silences Women: Afghanistan’s Taliban government passed new laws banning women from speaking, singing, or showing their faces in public. The UN called the new restrictions “intolerable” and “distressing.”
Telegram Arrest: French authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, alleging his encrypted messaging app is used for drug trafficking, child sexual exploitation, money laundering, and more. Critics (including Elon Musk, RFK Jr., and Edward Snowden) say Durov’s arrest is a free speech violation.
Paralympics This Week: Missing the Olympics already? You’re in luck – the 2024 Paralympics begin Wednesday in Paris. Thousands of athletes with disabilities will compete in hundreds of events. You can watch the Paralympics on NBC or stream on Peacock.
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