The News Not Noise Letter: Harris Woos Republicans
The News Not Noise Letter: Harris Woos Republicans
The VP hits the trail with Liz Cheney. Plus: Trump gets dirtier, Musk tests the law and some startling news on infant mortality in post-Dobbs America.
For daily news updates and analysis, be sure to follow us on Instagram. You can also find us on TikTok, YouTube, and Threads.
This morning I woke up to a slew of election forecasts, some of which show Trump pulling ahead but most show the race in a dead heat. Are we certain the polls are accurate? No. Pollsters tell us they aren’t sure who will turn out to vote so the election is difficult to model. Is it possible one candidate could pull ahead? Yes. Is it possible one candidate is already ahead and the polls aren’t capturing it? Sure.
Here are some things we do know:
15.5 million Americans have already voted.
Of those who have voted early, Harris is outpacing Trump 2-to-1, according to a new USA Today/Suffolk University Poll.
On election day voters trend GOP so you can’t extrapolate much from the early vote. (Early voting also favored Hillary Clinton in 2016.)
In the last weeks of the race, the Harris campaign is focused on winning over Republican and Independent voters who dislike Trump but remain reluctant to support a Democrat. Trump is targeting young men of all races. He’s also trying to woo suburban women, but that’s no easy task as the gender gap in this election is more like a gender chasm.
So is anything certain? Yes. Election day is November 5. Which means you have time to help get out the vote. Check out the comments section from Friday’s newsletter to find groups organizing phone banks, postcard writing sessions, canvassing and more.
Here are your headlines:
Trump, Extra Raunchy: In the closing days of the campaign Trump seems to be courting a specific type of young male voter – the kind who likes his presidents…crude? In what can safely be described as NSFW, Trump made a lewd comment about legendary golfer Arnold Palmer’s, um, size at a Pennsylvania rally. This weekend he also described Harris as a “sh*t” vice president. And he referred to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democrat Adam Schiff as “bad people” who threaten democracy. One challenge the Trump campaign has to overcome: they are targeting Americans who tend not to vote and are hard to reach through traditional media. Creating viral moments is one way to break into their awareness and Trump’s outrageous comments may serve that goal.
Don’t Make Me Say It: One voter who did not want to discuss the former president’s off-color anecdote is Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. During an awkward appearance on CNN, the Louisiana Republican refused to answer Jake Tapper’s questions about the nature of the remark three times. He called Trump’s comments “off-the-cuff.”
Are you Lovin’ It? Trump made a designed-to-go-viral appearance at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s, where he donned an apron to serve food to pre-selected drive-thru customers. More awkward than Trump scooping up fries, however, was the position the fast food chain was in after Trump’s appearance. McDonald’s released a statement reminding customers, “We are not red or blue – we are golden.”
Upping the Stakes on Trump: Vice President Harris, meanwhile, is zeroing in on independents, Never-Trumpers and moderately conservative women, bringing in a heavy hitter in the form of Republican Liz Cheney to help her gain an edge. The duo held Q&A events in Pennsylvania and Michigan, with an additional appearance scheduled in Wisconsin tonight. The events in the Blue Wall swing states struck a more ominous tone than Harris’s usual rallies. Harris and Cheney, a longtime Trump critic, used the hour-long sessions to warn the nation of the dangers a second Trump term might hold. “It’s a risk we simply cannot take as a nation,” Cheney said, calling Trump too “unstable” to lead, either domestically or internationally. In a remarkable moment Cheney, who calls herself “pro-life,” criticized the Dobbs decision, saying many post-Dobbs abortion restrictions are “resulting in women not getting the care they need,” adding, “That’s not sustainable for us as a country.” This is a clear pitch to suburban Republican women, who are wary of Harris but fear that a second Trump administration could chip away at women’s freedoms.
Taking Questions: In the face of continued complaints that she never speaks off-the-cuff with reporters Harris changed the narrative by, well, speaking off-the-cuff with reporters. In Michigan, Harris took questions ranging from the conflict in the Middle East to her opponent’s wellbeing. She called Trump “unfit” and “dangerous.”
If that’s not vote buying: Elon Musk appears to be following through with his recent promise to award comically oversized $1 million checks each day until the election to Trump supporters in swing states. The tactic, in which he basically bribes voters to sign a petition for his pro-Trump super PAC, continues to baffle election law experts, as well as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who described the effort as “deeply concerning” and worthy of an investigation by law enforcement. So far, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO has doled out payments to two people, according to his X account (formerly Twitter), but has yet to face any legal repercussions.
Is this pro-life? Infant mortality post-Dobbs:
This is a horrifying finding but one we all need to understand.
Several new studies show that infant mortality rates in the United States spiked after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade. The latest study published today shows a 7% increase in infant deaths overall in the U.S. and a 10% increase among babies born with genetic or chromosomal disorders. The study looked at births in the 18 months after the Supreme Court ended the right to abortion.
NNN friend Dr. Jeremy Faust – ER doc, author of Inside Medicine and editor of MedPage Today – conducted a similar study and explains that the deaths are mostly due to “severe birth defects” “that have very low survival probabilities.” He says that typically these abnormalities are discovered at 18-20 weeks of pregnancy which is past the point at which abortion is allowed in states that enacted strict abortion limits or bans. Faust bottom lines it: “This is forced birth of infants predicted to live hours, days, maybe weeks.” Maria Gallo, co-author of the latest study and a professor of epidemiology at Ohio State says, “When you restrict access to health care, it can cause a broader impact on public health than can be foreseen.”