The News Not Noise Letter: Iran Crossed the "Red Line"
US plans retaliation for deadly drone attack. Plus: a brewing constitutional crisis at the southern border, and who’s got religion?
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Here are the headlines:
Biden’s Iran Problem: Over the weekend a drone struck a US base in Jordan, killing 3 US soldiers and wounding at least 34. The deceased have been identified as Sgt. William Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, GA; Specialist Kennedy Sanders, 24, of Waycross, GA; and Specialist Breonna Moffett, 23, of Savannah, GA. This was the deadliest attack on US forces in the Middle East since the US pulled out of Afghanistan in August 2021. President Biden said the attack “was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” and vowed to “hold all those responsible to account.” This raises a number of questions: who will the US strike? And what happens after?
The Attack: First off, a refresher: the US operates roughly 800 military bases around the world, with a heavy concentration in the Middle East. We have effectively been at war with terror groups in the Middle East since 9/11, and we’ve been fighting ISIS for nearly a decade. The base in Jordan that was attacked this weekend was near borders with Syria and Iraq. Insurgent groups use both countries to stage attacks on US personnel and sites. (Remember that ISIS stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria…) Iranian proxy groups have struck US personnel at bases in the Middle East more than 160 times since October. US reprisal strikes have not stopped them. Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling said the attack in Jordan “certainly crossed the president’s red line.”
GOPs Urge Response: Top Republicans are demanding Biden respond immediately and severely, and to target Iran itself rather than its proxy groups. Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell says there must be “serious, crippling costs” for Iran, while Sen. Lindsey Graham says the US must “strike targets of significance inside Iran” and Sen. Cornyn tweeted simply “Target Tehran.” And former President Trump predictably blamed the service members’ deaths on “Joe Biden’s weakness and surrender.”
Don’t Poke the Bear: These hawks argue that Iran only responds to force and that, as a superpower, the US must use it to back its adversaries down. The challenge? Iran has a lot of firepower and a growing network of allies eager to take on the US. A US strike on a military site inside Iran could lead to escalation with no discernable “off ramp.” US troops in the region and US allies – including Israel – could be the targets of a ferocious response if this were to escalate. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said tensions in the Middle East make it as dangerous as it’s been “since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.” This is why the White House Spokesperson John Kirby today said, “We don’t seek a war with Iran,” and that the President has worked hard to “to try to bring the tensions down.”
Biden’s Options: So far, US strikes on Iran’s proxies have not deterred attacks. So the US’ options include: directly striking inside Iran hitting weapons depots, military assets and the like. (Administration officials are talking down this option.) Launching a cyberattack or multiple attacks inside Iran; targeting senior Iranian military leaders outside of Iran’s territory; or launching a sustained attack on Iran’s terror proxies over many days. In addition, the US would use diplomatic methods to try and persuade Iran not to respond and demand its proxies stop striking US bases and troops. (Worth noting: Iran funds and trains militant groups, but there’s no evidence it directs their specific attacks. Iran could deter future attacks by withholding weapons from the terror groups.)
Bottom Line: Whatever President Biden chooses, the situation in the Middle East is a powderkeg and it seems like everyone is holding out a match.
Border Crisis: A national immigration crisis is simmering at the border, in big cities, and in Congress, too. Senate negotiators have reached agreement on a rare bipartisan immigration bill that is nearly ready to come to the floor. It hasn’t been publicly released yet, and already Republicans who worked on it are facing political consequences. Oklahoma’s state Republican Party voted to censure Sen. James Lankford simply for negotiating the deal, accusing him of “playing fast and loose with Democrats on our border policy.” (Yes, he’s doing his job. No, this doesn’t make sense in a normal world.) Though President Biden has vowed to sign the Senate bill and “shut down the border,” it seems likely the deal won’t get through Congress. That’s because former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson are dead-set on killing it. Rather than allow Congress to do its job, Speaker Johnson says Biden should seize executive power to seal the border and “reclaim our nation’s sovereignty.” That’s a dramatic way of saying, he’d rather have the issue than a solution.
Border Standoff: At the same time, the Texas National Guard continues to block federal Border Patrol agents from accessing a section of the border along the Rio Grande. The Supreme Court voted that Texas must give the federal agents access to the area in Eagle Pass, but state officials say they are protecting their “right to self defense.” Yes, this is the kind of thing that could spin into a constitutional crisis. Idaho sent National Guard troops to back up Texas’ agents. Meantime, a convoy of anti-immigrant activists calling themselves “God’s Army” is headed to the border, increasing the odds something goes wrong.
Religious Nones: Here’s a change of pace from domestic and international crises, and something we found intriguing. A Pew research poll found that 28% of US adults do not identify as religiously affiliated. This “unaffiliated” identity has been on the rise for decades. Most religious “nones” do not lack spiritual belief – only 17% identify specifically as atheist. 69% of “nones” say they believe in God or some other higher power but they don’t feel affinity for religious institutions for a variety of reasons: they question a lot of religious teachings, don’t like religious organizations, have had bad experiences with religious people or don’t see a need for religion in their lives. Most “nones” believe religion does some harm in society, but most also believe it does some good. Note: we recognize that many, especially LGBTQ+ people, have been alienated and even traumatized by specific faith organizations. There’s even a push to add religious trauma to the DSM, the official guide to mental disorders.
Food for Thought: As we continue to think about the intersections of news, mental health, and lifestyle, we’re curious about the role spirituality plays in our personal wellbeing. Research has shown that holding personally-meaningful spiritual beliefs can be profoundly protective against addiction, depression, and other mental disorders. But we recognize this is not true for everyone nor does spirituality mean belonging to a religious institution. We are curious to know your views. Do you think spirituality is an important component of wellbeing? Would you like us to report further on this topic?
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