The News Not Noise Letter: Iran’s Unprecedented Attack on Israel
What just happened and what’s next.
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This was meant to be a brief write up about today’s events and what to look for next, but there’s a lot to say.
All day I’ve been sharing updates about the attack from Iran in a Substack chat. Everyone was meant to receive an email notifying you that it’s happening but I’m advised that many of you did not. So here’s your notification: I’ll be back on chat Sunday if there’s more activity. You can find that chat here. Please know the chat is for subscribers and if you’d like to sign up to subscribe you can do so here:
I also share major developments in Instagram stories, so you can always check there. Finally, it’s late and I’m writing this solo without a proof reader. If there are typos thank you for understanding, making sense based on context and extending me some grace.
Iran’s “massive swarm” attack:
The threat of Iranian strikes on Israel has subsided for now. Israeli airspace has reopened as has Israel’s main airport, Ben Gurion.
Saturday, Iran launched an unprecedented, coordinated missile and drone assault on Israel. The IDF described it as “a massive swarm of over 200 killer drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.” (They later updated that number to 300.) This is the first time Iran has launched an attack onto Israeli soil. Aaron David Miller, former State Department Middle East Negotiator, called this “a historic turning point in the Israeli Iranian conflict.”
Iran described the attack as an act of self defense and “responsible”. It was in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes on a building in an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. Iran says the attack killed senior military officials including a top general. The general who was targeted coordinated with and supplied Hezbollah, the terror group that strikes Israel from Lebanon. Israel hasn’t claimed responsibility for that attack.
Impact: The vast majority of Iran’s incoming drones and missiles were shot down before they reached Israeli airspace. The US, and UK helped intercept some of those attacks; others were intercepted over Jordan presumably by Jordan’s airforce. It’s possible other “partners” in the region also supported the effort but don’t want to claim credit.
The strikes caused limited physical damage. A 10-year-old in a Bedouin village in Israel was injured by shrapnel and there were reportedly injuries at a military base in Southern Israel. There are no known deaths.
Proportionate? You’ll hear arguments that this wasn’t an escalation by Iran. Why? Because there weren’t deaths or large scale destruction; because Iran provided advance notice of the attack; because lots of proxy forces didn’t join in the attack; and because Iran didn’t strike US targets or personnel.
Escalation: But 300 missiles and drones is a massive barrage. And those who see this as a disproportionate response by Iran say there’s no way Iran could have been confident that Israeli defense systems would work so well, or that intercepts by allies would be so effective. Therefore, Iran must have expected some of this to penetrate and cause death and destruction. Iran changed the game by launching these strikes directly from Iran, rather than continuing the shadow-war practice of attacking through proxies. And Iran’s drones and missiles entered civilian areas in Israel and some flew over holy sites in Jerusalem. In the view of Israeli leadership, and some US foreign policy analysts, that all makes this a clear escalation.
What Next: That’s up to Israel.
The US: President Biden and PM Netanyahu have spoken. CNN reports that Biden told Netayahu that the US won’t participate in any retaliatory strike against Iran. In a written statement the President also condemned Iran’s attacks and reiterated the US’ “ironclad commitment to the security of Israel.” The President is convening G7 leaders Sunday, and will no doubt coordinate allies to try and isolate Iran and contain the conflict. (G7 = Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US.)
Iran: After the first wave of drones and missiles were airborne and headed to Israel, Iran’s representatives to the UN issued a statement saying, in part, “This matter can be deemed concluded.” This signaled that Iran wanted their show of force to be the last word. But (since they’re not that naive) they also warned that if Israel takes retaliatory action “Iran’s response will be considerably more severe.” Iran’s military warned the US not to get involved in any Israeli counterstrike. The US has plenty of troops in the Middle East who could be in danger if Iran wanted to inflict pain on the US.