The News Not Noise Letter: Israel strikes the Islamic Republic of Iran
Israel launched a limited strike. What will Iran do next?
For regular updates, follow us on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and Threads.
We are sending this newsletter special, in light of the developments in the Middle East.
Israel Strikes Iran:
Overnight, Israel reportedly launched a retaliatory strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran. As of this writing they have not claimed responsibility.
Friday morning local time, social media began filling with reports of explosions in Isfahan, a province of Iran that houses several of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. According to multiple reports, nuclear facilities were not hit. (More on this below) Instead, according to the New York Times, a military base was the target of the attacks, possibly by drones. And CNN International quotes an Iranian state media report saying that all facilities in the area are secure, including significant nuclear facilities. As of now, this seems to be a very limited action.
According to CNN, Israel gave the U.S. a heads up prior to the attack, saying that they planned a “limited” retaliatory strike that would not target civilian or nuclear facilities. A U.S. official told CNN they “didn’t endorse” Israel’s retaliation.
This strike, presumably, is in response to the “unprecedented” drone and missile strike the Islamic Republic launched on Israel last weekend. That Iranian attack was in retaliation for Israel’s targeted killing of a top general and several other senior Iranian military officers in a building on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
Why would Israel do this?
Deterrence. Yes, Israel and its partners shot down Iran’s incoming missiles and drones several days ago; that was a show of strength, but it was a defensive move. Deterrence is about offensive action.
This attack appears to be a flex, if you will. Israel’s way of showing Iran that they have the capacity to penetrate Iran’s air defenses and hit near Iran’s nuclear facilities. It’s a veiled threat: escalate and we can do real damage.
What Will Iran Do Next?
That’s the big question. Hours before the explosions, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN that if Israel were to retaliate – launching what he called an “adventurous attack” — the Islamic Republic’s response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.” That sounded ominous.
The world is waiting and watching to see what the Islamic Republic of Iran does next. If the country retaliates, it could lead to a cycle of escalation that engulfs the region. It’s promising to know that in the hours right after the attack CNN reported that Iran does not plan to respond. As of now Iran has not acted. We’ll see if that holds.
The Islamic Republic contends that there were “no foreign airstrikes against Iran and what is being circulated are lies.”
We will continue to watch.
Retaliation vs. “Taking the Win”:
On Monday we explained the logic for and against retaliation. I thought it might be helpful to include that again here.
Leaders in the US, UK, France called Israel to show restraint and refrain from launching reprisal attacks on Iran. But Israeli officials told the US that they planned to retaliate and “exact a price” for Iran’s attack.
Given the potential for endless escalation spiraling into war, why would Israel want to strike back?
Out of the Shadows: Iran crossed a red line by launching attacks from its own soil – not through proxy terror groups. The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, agreed. He said Iran “decided to create a new equation,” and vowed that “from now on, if Israel attacks Iranian interests… anywhere, we will retaliate from Iran.” The shadow war is gone and replaced by a direct conflict with Iran.
Swarm of Drones and Missiles: Iran targeted Israel with a massive bombardment that was designed to overwhelm defenses and allow extremely dangerous ballistic missiles to penetrate Israel’s protections and cause death and destruction.
Perceived Weakness: There is a view inside Israel that Iran would not have dared to launch such an attack prior to October 7, but they did so now because they perceive Israel as vulnerable.
Deterrence: Israel’s long-standing military strategy of deterrence is being challenged. This is the military view that because Israel is surrounded by violent adversaries, when an enemy attacks, that attack must be met with disproportionate and overwhelming force to discourage the enemy from attacking again. A fierce response would also signal other enemies to attack at their own risk as well. (Deterrence is about taking offensive action, not defending against an incoming attack.)