The News Not Noise Letter: New Power Struggle for Iran
What President Raisi’s death means for Iran and the world. Plus: who called Israel a “territory” and Palestine a “state”? And backtalking the Trump judge.
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ICC Prosecutor Seeks Warrants: Unusual and striking actions today from the chief prosecutor for the International Criminal Court. In an unprecedented move he announced he will ask the ICC to issue arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders for alleged war crimes. President Biden denounced the action as “outrageous,” and even Hamas called the decision unjust.
What Just Happened? ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan is seeking arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas’ Gaza-based leader Yahya Sinwar, political leader Ismail Haniyeh, and military leader Mohammed Deif. Usually the Court announces warrants after they’ve been approved. But this prosecutor rushed to the public announcement – and, according to the US State Department, called off a planned trip to Israel to do so. In a ferocious condemnation, the US State Department questioned the “legitimacy and credibility of this investigation.” Note that in his official statement, and with no explanation, the chief prosecutor refers to the “State of Palestine” and the “territory of Israel.”
The Charges Against Hamas Leadership: The prosecutor charges Hamas leaders with war crimes and crimes against humanity including murder, taking hostages, torture, and rape and sexual violence, which the prosecutor notes occurred on 10/7 and beyond (hostages raped in captivity).
The Charges Against Israeli Leadership: The prosecutor charges Netanyahu and Gallant with war crimes and crimes against humanity, primarily for “starvation of civilians as a method of warfare.” Not for the bombing campaign but for lack of aid in Gaza.
Note: Genocide is never mentioned in the release – the charge isn’t levelled against Hamas or Israeli leadership. The prosecutor also acknowledged his office is still investigating “large-scale bombing” in Gaza but has not yet pressed charges connected to it.
The Implications: The prosecutor’s statement is mostly a public pressure tactic. The ICC does not have any means of enforcing the warrants directly – it relies on its member countries to make arrests. (For context, the ICC has had a warrant for the arrest of Vladimir Putin since March 2023. He doesn’t seem hemmed in by it.) Neither Israel nor the US is signed on to the rules that govern the ICC. But the warrants further isolate Israel on the world stage and impose pressure on both Israel and Hamas to come to some agreement to protect civilians.
Reactions: President Biden denounced the suggested equivalency between Israeli leadership and Hamas as “outrageous”. Inside Israel, Netanyahu’s chief opponent Benny Gantz called the charges a “crime of historic proportions.” Some US Representatives are calling for sanctions on the ICC. (Hamas also expressed frustration saying the charges “equates the victim with the executioner.”)
What Next? A panel of judges at the ICC must review the request and decide whether or not to grant the warrants – and the AP reports this process usually takes two months.
Gaza’s Day After: The ICC prosecutor is far from the only person putting pressure on Netanyahu. Members of the war cabinet are making moves that threaten to bring down the Netanyahu government. This centers on Netanyahu’s failure to announce a post-war plan for Gaza.
What’s The Post-War Issue? In general, moderates in the Israeli government want to announce plans to stabilize Gaza after the war. These include: setting up a multinational governing body (with Arab, US, EU, Palestinian participation) to oversee civil matters; allowing for an eventual transition to Palestinian self governance (“two-state solution”) under leadership that is not Hamas; joining forces with Saudi Arabia (“normalization”) in an alliance against Iran; ensuring that the IDF has limited post-war security responsibility in Gaza; and that no Israeli settlements are built in Gaza. Read more terms here. Netanyahu hasn’t agreed to a plan with any of these terms for reasons I’ll get into in a minute.
June 8 Ultimatum: This weekend Netanyahu’s rival Benny Gantz issued an ultimatum demanding that he present a plan for post-war Gaza that the war cabinet can agree on by June 8, or Gantz and his party will step down from the emergency government.
Gallant’s Call: Last week Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also called on Netanyahu to publicly announce Israel “will not establish civilian control” nor “military governance in the Gaza Strip” after the war.
Why this matters: If a little more than a handful of people leave Netanyahu’s coalition, then his government collapses – forcing new elections.
The Extremists’ Goal: For now Netanyahu remains in power thanks to the support of far-right extremists who have explicitly stated their aim to establish a permanent military presence in Gaza including new Israeli settlements. Netanyahu’s critics accuse him of pandering to the far-right for personal reasons; when he leaves office he faces likely prosecution for corruption and his harshest critics allege he’s prolonging the war to stay out of jail.
Trump Trial Updates: Today Michael Cohen continued to testify in the NY criminal case against Donald Trump. During cross-examination, the defense got Cohen to confess to stealing from the Trump Organization. It’s unclear how that will land with the jury – on the one hand, an admitted thief may not be the most reliable witness, but on the other, it’s hardly news that Cohen is a shifty character. The prosecution rested its case today and the defense called its first witness, Robert Costello. Costello is a lawyer who says he met with Cohen during the FBI investigation into him in 2018. During questioning, Costello reportedly rolled his eyes, side-eyed the judge, disregarded when the judge sustained objections, and even back-talked him – prompting the judge to clear the courtroom to address the witness privately. The jury was sent home for the day before Costello’s testimony concluded, so we’ll be hearing more from him tomorrow.
Taiwan’s New President: Speaking of provocations, Beijing has recently intensified military demonstrations near Taiwan. Monday, Taiwan inaugurated President Lai Ching-Te. Lai used his inaugural address to urge China to “choose dialogue over confrontation” and “cease their political and military intimidation against Taiwan.”
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“The Butcher of Tehran”: Ebrahim Raisi’s Legacy
On Sunday, a helicopter carrying Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and six others crashed with no survivors. After a flurry of confused and conflicting reports, Iran’s government finally confirmed the deaths. Iranian state media quickly dismissed conspiracy theories and reported the crash was caused by unspecified “technical failures.”
Raisi’s death prompted fireworks and celebrations by Iranians who suffered enormously under Raisi’s rule. Often referred to as the “Butcher of Tehran,” he rose to power through brutality and governed through terror. Here, we take a look at Raisi’s rise to power and what his death means for Iran, the Middle East, and the world at large.
