The News Not Noise Letter: The Case For and Against Biden
Breaking down how Democrats think they can beat Trump. Plus: which president worked least? And a refresher on the role of the press.
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We are entering a critical weekend. If Democrats want a new ticket at the convention, it’s crunch time. The DNC’s Rules Committee meets in a week. They have the power to set a process to select a new nominee. It’s now up to party elders to drop the hammer or ride with Biden.
Meanwhile, a lot of you tell me you’re frustrated with the political press for giving Trump “a pass” these last two weeks while focusing relentlessly on Biden’s multi-front crisis. You argue the press should be bombarding the public with stories about Trump’s scandals, his second term agenda, and his general boorish behavior. Is that the role of the press? Let’s take a quick trip back to previous election cycles. Do you remember these campaign catchphrases?
Obama 2008: John McCain is “erratic” and promised “more of the same.” Versus Obama’s “hope and change.”
Obama 2012: Romney would “turn back the clock” and make “the rich richer.” Versus Obama, who was moving us “Forward.”
Trump 2016: Hillary was “crooked,” feds should “lock her up,” while he’d “make America great again.”
Biden 2020: Warned that “democracy is on the ballot” and he’d “restore the soul of the nation.”
Quick, name a campaign catchphrase you hear Biden saying all the time. If you’re coming up short, that’s because in the 14 months since Biden entered the race, he hasn’t relentlessly – dare we say effectively – prosecuted the case against Trump. Later in the newsletter we’ll talk about the distinct roles of the press and the candidate.
First, some headlines. Note: the Republican convention is next week and Trump will announce his VP pick. We’ll cover Trump’s campaign promises and the RNC platform then. In the meantime you can read our coverage of Project 2025 here.
Here are the latest headlines:
Biden in Michigan: Campaigning today in Michigan, President Biden told voters, “I promise you I’m okay.” It’s only his fourth trip this year to Michigan, a “blue wall” state that has become a must-win battleground. His closely watched news conference was deemed a wash, with analysts and party insiders praising Biden on the substance but giving him low marks for delivery. His campaign is vowing to rally from two “bad f***ing weeks,” by focusing on swing states, especially North Carolina (which Democrats haven’t won since 2008).
Good News/Bad News for Biden: Kingmaker Rep. Jim Clyburn today declared that he’s “riding with Biden.” Grassroots donations keep coming in. He’s got the public support of the Congressional Black Caucus and some big labor unions. On the other hand, at least 19 Congressional Democrats have called for Biden to withdraw, and 24 called for an open convention. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Biden to share what he called “the full breadth of insight” from House Democrats (DC speak for bad news). A pro-Biden super PAC Future Forward is reportedly freezing $90 million in donations and big donor dollars are said to be drying up. All this after Speaker Emerita Pelosi put his future in play with an appearance on “Morning Joe” and amid talk that party elders are prepared to bring Biden more bad news to ease him out of the race.
Trump’s Laid-Back Gig: A new report from Roll Call found former President Trump had the shortest average work day in office of any US president since FDR: just 6 hours and 2 minutes. President Biden had the third-shortest work day (6 hours and 48 minutes).
Trump’s Meta-morphosis: Meta announced they’re lifting restrictions on Trump’s Instagram and Facebook accounts in the coming days.
Trump’s Team: Want to play the veepstakes? Here’s a list of the candidates Trump’s said to be seriously considering. While we’re sharing links, this is an inside look at Trump’s campaign playbook.
Texas Updates: After Hurricane Beryl slammed Texas, more than 1 million Houston-area residents were without power today – and about half a million likely won’t have their power restored until sometime next week. Meanwhile, Gov. Abbott is on a trip in Asia.
The Democrats’ Summer of Sadness:
My inbox is overflowing with messages from Democrats who believe firmly that Biden must or must not drop out of the race. Each side simply cannot understand the other perspective. We can help with that. Here are some of the arguments for Biden to stay in the race and for him to withdraw. (Note: we are not advocating a position, just representing views shared with us in our reporting.)
The Case for Keeping Biden:
Biden’s Merits: He got the votes. He has name recognition, a campaign team, and a war chest with no legal hurdles to overcome. He’s deeply knowledgeable about policy and has a record of domestic and foreign policy achievements. Replacing Biden now would demoralize some voters, especially older Black voters who are in his corner and key to a Democratic victory.
Chaos Theory: Putting in a new candidate now could create chaos at the convention and divide the Democratic Party. A new candidate wouldn’t have a team in place and would face legal challenges to access campaign funds. No one can be sure who would emerge from an open convention.
Chaos Benefits Trump: Infighting and chaos at the DNC would be broadcast nationwide and could project instability and weakness. It would distract from negative coverage of Trump. And Trump’s team admits Democratic “chaos is our friend.”
Too Much Too Soon: A new ticket would have just over two months to get voters off the couch and to the polls. Biden has a team and resources to do that.
Beating Trump: Biden is the only candidate who has beaten Trump so far. And no one trusts polls, anyway.
Risk Analysis: A new nominee is untested and the stakes are too high to gamble. Democrats say they’d “vote for a corpse over Trump,” so sticking with Biden is the less risky option. In Lincoln’s words, “You don’t change horses midstream.”
The Case for Replacing Biden:
Biden’s Weaknesses: At least 19 members of Congress, the Democratic party’s most experienced campaign strategists and some unnamed White House and campaign staff believe it’s all but certain that Biden will lose to Trump. They fear Biden’s candidacy is so uninspiring that voters in key districts won’t vote at all, costing many Democrats their seats in Congress. In short, they believe that keeping Biden means Republicans will end up in control of the White House, the House and the Senate.
Below the paywall we continue with the case for replacing Biden, share an update on polling, and explore the different roles of the press and the campaign.
