The News Not Noise Letter: The Grocery Bill Election
What doomed Democrats. Plus: A soccer riot sparks an international incident, and will American women go sex-free in the Trump years?
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It’s been a long week. Many people are hurting, angry, and looking to point fingers. Some of you tell me you’re feeling sad or anxious about what comes next. After the election we held a group zoom that went overcapacity; we had to hold a second one to get everyone in. It’s clear you feel the need for community.
On Thursday I hosted a conversation with Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action and author of the Playing with Fire newsletter here on Substack. She offered advice about staying engaged — and running for office. You can watch that here. In the week ahead I’ll host more conversations, including one Tuesday November 12 at 7p ET/4p PT. The guest is Andrea Bendewald. She is a friend, host of the Circle This Podcast, and a guide for in-person community building. Please share any questions you’d like me to ask Andrea in the comments.
In the weeks to come, we’ll dive into what the next Trump administration might look like. But first, let’s examine what happened.
We’ll start with a reminder. The full election results aren’t in yet. Still we have enough information to identify the key trends that propelled Trump to victory. Above all it came down to one familiar phrase, “It’s the economy stupid.”
There’s a lot of noise right now about why, exactly, Trump was seen as a better steward of the economy. Today, we’ll give you the breakdown on key races, some of the latest domestic and international news. And we end with an explanation of what early data tells us about this election.
Here are your Election Headlines:
Winners and Losers: The most important result, other than the presidency, was the Senate. Republicans regained control. As of today, they picked up four seats. There are still two races that are too close to call; if Democrats win both as expected, the final balance of power will be 53–47 with GOP control.
Checks and Balances: A Senate majority gives Republicans a significant mandate to get started on their agenda, whether it’s elements of Project 2025 or anything else. Remember, though, that the GOP fought to retain the filibuster, which could give Democrats a lifeline: Overriding a filibuster requires 60 votes.
Key Players: Here are the outcomes of the key Senate races.
Republican victories:
Florida: Incumbent Rick Scott (GOP) beat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (Dem).
Montana: Tim Sheehy (GOP) beat Incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (Dem).
Nebraska: Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (GOP) defeated Dan Osborn (Ind).
Ohio: Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (Dem) was ousted by Bernie Moreno (GOP).
Texas: Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (GOP) held off Rep. Colin Allred (Dem).
Pennsylvania: This hasn’t been called yet, but challenger David McCormick (GOP) currently leads incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (Dem).
Democratic victories:
Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks (Dem) defeated former Governor Larry Hogan (GOP).
Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Dem) defeated Mike Rogers (GOP).
Wisconsin: Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (Dem) defeated Eric Hovde (GOP).
Up in the air:
Arizona: Ruben Gallego (Dem) leads Kari Lake (GOP) by a promising 1.5%.
Nevada: Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Sam Brown (GOP) by 1.3% with almost all votes counted.
Devil in the Details: Nearly every Democratic candidate outperformed Harris. That holds true whether they lost or won, whether Harris carried the state or not.
Andrew Prokop of Vox noted this trend on Wednesday. He argued it reflected a general dislike of the current administration — the “I don’t like Republicans much, but the economy was better under Trump” voters.
A House Divided: As of today, control of the House is uncertain. Republicans have picked up two seats so far, putting them at 211 — seven off the 218 needed for a majority. They’re on track to retain control of the chamber, though it ain’t over till the Golden State sings. (Most of the undecided races are in California, which takes a few days to finish counting ballots.)
World and Domestic Headlines:
Hate Around the World: On Thursday, Israeli soccer fans visiting Amsterdam to watch their team play were filmed marching through the streets chanting anti-Arab slogans: “Let the IDF win, [f-word] the Arabs.” Other videos showed fans ripping down Palestinian flags. In retaliation, attackers assaulted hundreds of fans; according to the city’s mayor, some of the criminals sped through the city on scooters in search of victims. Videos, many unverified, have been shared of people being chased and beaten in the city. At least five Israelis were hospitalized, another few dozen were lightly injured, and over 60 people were arrested.
Hate at Home: The FBI is investigating reports of Black students across the U.S. waking up on Wednesday to racist text messages informing them they had “been selected to pick cotton at the nearest plantation.” Others were told they had been chosen as “house slaves.” Some of the messages purported to be from the Trump administration, though MAGA officials have denied this and condemned the hateful texts.
Glorifying Hatred: Trump’s victory also prompted a surge in misogyny. Student activists in Texas marched with signs calling women and slaves property, while far-right provocateurs gloated online. A post by white supremacist Nick Fuentes — who was banned from Twitter for hate speech until Musk reinstated his account — read: “Your body, my choice. Forever.” It has been shared over 29,000 times and received over 63 million views.
The 4 Bs: Some American women are promoting 4B, a South Korean feminist movement that encourages women to embrace four no’s: No dating, marrying, having sex with, or having children with men. Let’s see where that goes.
One reason our country is so polarized? Different news sources provide different spin on the same facts based on their political tilt. Ground News is a great resource to help you navigate this. As an app and website, it compiles sources from around the world, letting you compare coverage across the political spectrum. It gives you context into each source’s bias, reliability, and ownership, so you can make sense of the information you’re consuming. Ground News is offering this community a 50% discount on unlimited access to the Vantage Plan. To subscribe, click this link or go to groundnews.com/NNN. It’s their best deal of the year at a time when we can all use some help balancing our news consumption.
What Just Happened:
The Overview: It can be hard to understand why people voted in favor of mass deportations, restricting women’s rights, and violent, negative, bigoted language. In reality, though, many Trump 2024 voters chose him in spite of these facts, not because of them.
Economics Over All: The economy was the most important issue . According to exit polls, 45% of voters say they’re worse off now than four years ago. That’s double the number who said the same in 2020 and also more than in 2008, the Great Recession!
Caveat: Exit polls aren’t always accurate on the electorate’s demographics. We’ll know more when analysts have time to map actual votes against voter databases in a few months.
Art of the Deal: Voters blamed Biden for their economic woes and trusted Trump over Harris to fix them.
Too Little, Too Late: In an interview with the NYT, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed regret at Biden’s refusal to step down sooner — which, among other things, scuppered chances of an open primary.
Feelings Over Facts:
