The News Not Noise Letter: The Whiplash News Cycle
The News Not Noise Letter: The Whiplash News Cycle
Iran, the economy, and the campaigns keep changing gears. Plus: explaining Democrats’ Electoral College math.
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Is the news giving you whiplash? Whether it’s Iran, the economy, a hostage deal, or election news – it seems we are caught in constant contradictions. Iran is/then isn’t/then is planning an attack on Israel. The economy is doing great, no it’s headed for a recession, no no it’s just fine. And the election? The campaigns are warning us that this election could augur the end of democracy. But despite stakes that high, the candidates are arguing about crowd size and who’s weirder. I’m getting news whiplash, and I have a feeling we’re just going to have to get used to it.
Today we guide you through the latest on Iran, the campaigns, some surprising crime stats. And we explain why Democrats need to win the popular vote by a wide margin to win the Electoral College. We hope a little information in context will help you feel steady.
Here are your headlines:
Iran Attack Imminent? The uncertainty around Iran’s threatened strike on Israel is reaching new intensity. The IDF is on “peak alert”, and today the White House warned of “a significant set of attacks” possibly as soon as “this week.” The US sent a guided missile submarine and an additional carrier strike group to the Mediterranean to deter Iran from aggressive action. The US, UK, France, Germany and Italy have collectively called on Iran to “stand down” or face “serious consequences.” Today is Tisha B’Av, commemorating the destruction of the First and Second ancient Temples in Jerusalem and the expulsion of Jews from countries around the world. Iran has warned of a devastating strike on Israel during this holiday.
Hostage Negotiations: Today, Hamas claims to have killed one male hostage and wounded two women. Neither the US nor Israel has confirmed this. Also today, Germany, France, and the UK called on Hamas to join negotiations this Thursday on a ceasefire/hostage deal, in the hopes that an agreement would de-escalate tensions and stand down Iran. Israel agreed to join but so far Hamas has not.
The NNN: Iran is a rogue state, and they know their next move could have a massive domino effect on their own security plus that of the region and the world. Changing realities can and do change Iran’s calculus.
Beware Finance Hyperventilation: Quick flag. The CEO of Bank of America said Sunday that “there’s no recession” and “we’ve won the war on inflation.” What a change from headlines a week ago warning: “US recession worries surge again.” Reminder: Mainstream financial press is given to quick hysteria and lots of noise.
Campaign Updates: The presidential campaigns are so noisy I’ve debated how much of the silly stuff I should share. This is what’s making headlines.
Trump/Vance Campaign:
X Marks the Interview: Elon Musk will interview former President Donald Trump tonight at 8pm EST on X. Musk says there will be “no limits on subject matter.” On a scale from one to dumpster fire, we’re predicting it’ll be “two dudes drenched in kerosene playing catch with a Molotov cocktail.” The EU is warning Musk their laws require X block disinformation from Trump during the interview. Note: Musk’s false election claims on X have nearly 1.2 billion views, according to the Center for Countering Digital Hate.
Crowd Size Complaints: Trump claimed on Truth Social that Vice President Kamala Harris is using AI to make her crowd sizes look bigger. This is not true.
It’s Whatever: When asked by CNN’s Dana Bash whether he believes that Harris is Black, Sen. JD Vance said he believes she’s “whatever she says she is,” but then called her a “chameleon.”
What’s Her Name? Two pictures emerged this weekend of Vance, who has systematically attacked LGBTQ+ rights during his time in office, dressed in drag while attending Yale Law School.
Hacked or Leaked: After a Microsoft report revealed Iran attempted to hack US presidential campaigns, the Trump campaign said they’d been targeted and a series of documents were leaked to Politico. No one has published the leaked documents. The FBI is investigating the claims and today confirmed someone in the campaign was hacked in June.
Pennsylvania: Trump will hold a rally in Pennsylvania this weekend, where his campaign says he’ll talk about a “crime wave” (more below) and denounce “dangerously liberal policies and radical Democrats.”
Say That Again? Trump spent the weekend flying to campaign events on a plane formerly owned by Jeffrey Epstein. Yep. A campaign spokesperson said Trump had no knowledge of the jet’s prior owner.
Harris/Walz Campaign:
Talking Econ: VP Harris is bringing more policy into her campaign message – expect an economy-themed speech this week. So far, she’s said that as president she’ll work to stop a tax on tips (adopting a Trump campaign promise). At an Atlanta rally, she vowed to “take on price gouging,” “ban hidden fees,” and “cap unfair rent prices” and prescription drug costs. She said her plan would “lower costs and save many middle-class families thousands of dollars a year.”
Sort-of-Reunion: Harris and President Biden will make one of their first public appearances together since she became the nominee. In Maryland Thursday they’ll discuss “the progress they are making to lower costs for the American people.”
Working the Press: Last week Harris briefly answered reporter questions but hasn’t done a sit-down interview since late June. The campaign promises she’ll grant an interview by the end of the month. The campaign is soaring on good vibes and great memes. Taking questions from the press risks gaffes and going off message.
Latinos: Harris is improving on Biden’s support among Latinos, but she’s still underperforming what Democrats’ need to win the presidency. The DNC is launching Spanish language billboards in battleground state cities.
Noise Alert: Can you all suggest what we should call noisy news when it’s offensively noisy?
Pregnant Women Denied Care: Emergency rooms across the US denied care to over 100 pregnant women in medical distress since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, according to a new AP report. One woman denied treatment for her ectopic pregnancy subsequently lost a fallopian tube and “approximately 75% of her right ovary.” Denying emergency care to pregnant women in crisis is a violation of federal law, which requires hospitals to provide “stabilizing treatment” to any patient with an “emergency medical condition.” But in states with restrictive abortion bans, many doctors and hospitals worry that they’ll be fined or prosecuted for providing emergency care to pregnant women in crisis.
Crime Plummets: In the 2024 election both candidates are vowing to be “tough on crime.” But violent crime is down significantly in many major US cities this year, according to an Axios analysis of Major Cities Chiefs Association data. Violent crime fell the most in Columbus, OH (-41%) and Omaha, NE (-30%), and Boston experienced an exceptionally dramatic drop in homicides (-78%).
Perseid Meteor Shower: The annual Perseid meteor shower peaked early Monday morning, sending “shooting stars” across the skies. Some viewers got to witness the meteor shower at the same time as the Northern Lights.
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Unpacking the Electoral College
Lots of you ask why a Democrat has to win the election by a healthy margin in order to win the presidency. That’s because of the unique way the Electoral College works.
Why? Well, the Electoral College is weird: