The News Not Noise Letter: What’s Happening in the Suburbs?
The News Not Noise Letter: What’s Happening in the Suburbs?
A closer look at Harris’s surging support. Plus: is de-escalation possible in the Middle East? And the FDA’s not psyched for psychedelics.
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Remember way back when it was Monday, the market took a dive, and traders panicked about a looming recession we’d all missed? Well, today the S&P 500 closed .04% lower than it opened. In the words of Prof. Justin Wolfers, it’s “the smallest weekly drop in over six years.” So all that panic, for nothing. Can we adopt this mantra: Wall Street traders’ emotions will not dictate my wellbeing. Other potentially positive news: there are new signs Iran may be rethinking its threatened strike on Israel in the next week. And in the past, we’ve told you to wait a few weeks before reading the polls. Guess what? It’s time to read the polls. That’s where we end this newsletter. Hint: it’s all about the ladies.
Here are your headlines:
Israel/Iran: Potentially big news out of Iran – a new report in Al-Monitor suggests Iran is moderating its threat to launch a devastating attack on Israel any day. The outlet quotes Iran’s UN Mission saying that “Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza….” adding that any retaliation “will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.” This suggests the planned attack could be put on hold until after negotiators meet on a revived hostage-for-ceasefire deal. This comes after the US, Egypt and Qatar issued a public statement today announcing that a hostage/ceasefire deal is ready and “called on both sides to resume urgent discussions”. They set an August 15th date to “close all remaining gaps.” Israel has agreed to negotiate, so far Hamas has not. A delay could provide Iran a face-saving way to avoid a shooting war with Israel and an opportunity to boast that they forced a deal on Gaza. Israel is still bracing for an attack — there is no indication Hezbollah is backing off.
Politics: The latest polls show that Harris/Walz has closed the gap with Trump (more on polls below) and their campaign swing shows it. VP Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz are campaigning in Arizona and Nevada which are once again battleground states. Trump is in deep-red Montana.
Harris/Walz Go West: The ticket is riding high with surging poll numbers, overflow crowds, and big online energy. They’re also getting a soft kiss from the press. The New York Times actually wrote a piece about Harris headlined in part “joy is fueling her campaign.” Here’s the latest:
Arizona + Nevada: Tonight Harris and Walz are campaigning in 2 of 3 states that the Cook Political Report declared new battlegrounds. With immigration a priority here, the campaign is out with this new ad highlighting Harris’s tough-on-drugs-and-crime record as a prosecutor.
Repro Rights: Abortion will be on the ballot in both Nevada and Arizona this November, and Harris is doubling down on her pro-freedom message. Check out these numbers from the campaign: a whopping 76% of Nevada voters and 81% of Nevada’s Latino voters believe abortion should be legal. And 65% of Arizona voters say abortion should be protected in their state’s constitution.
Election Subversion: The campaign is also pushing an election integrity message as both Arizona and Nevada have substantial election denial movements. Arizona recently indicted 17 people connected to a plot to overturn the 2020 election, and Trump’s Nevada campaign is being run by people indicted in an alleged fake elector scheme.
Trump/Vance: It’s been a less than stellar day in MAGA world.
Losing the Bro Vote? Podcaster Joe Rogan seemed to endorse RFK Jr., saying he’s “the only one that makes sense…”. After Trump warned that UFC world might turn on him, Rogan walked back his comments, explaining he didn’t mean to endorse Kennedy. Meanwhile Nick Fuentes, the white supremacist with a following of young men, warned that Trump faces a “catastrophic loss” if the campaign doesn’t change tactics. Fuentes promised an announcement Monday. NNN: You might find these guys to be noisy, but their cooling enthusiasm could impact the Trump vote. That’s news.
Losing the Plot: This comes after Trump held a widely panned press conference in which he (falsely) declared his crowd size larger than Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s crowd for the “I Have A Dream” speech and mourned Joe Biden’s departure from the race.
Losing His Lead: We mentioned that credible polls show Trump’s lead all but vanished since Harris entered the race. At his rambling presser, Trump telegraphed that his campaign plans to shift tactics after the Democratic convention.
Plane Problems: Friday Trump is in Montana, a state he won by 16 points, to support Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, running against Dem Sen. Jon Tester. Trump’s plane made an emergency landing 100+ miles from his rally site, but he’s fine. Tough day for Trump Force One.
Bangladesh Updates: This has been a week of horrific violence against Hindus in Bangladesh after the country’s longtime leader Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country Monday. Hindus are 8% of Bangladesh’s population and have historically supported Hasina’s party. Since her resignation, several Hindu temples, homes, and communities have been vandalized by Islamic extremists, and social media and local reports are flooded with videos of graphic violence. Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate charged with restoring order, was sworn in as the interim leader of Bangladesh on Thursday. He denounced the violence and promised to restore “democracy, justice, human rights, and full freedom of fearless expression.”
FDA Says No to MDMA for PTSD: The FDA today declined to approve MDMA-assisted therapy for the treatment of PTSD due to insufficient data proving its safety and efficacy. Lykos Therapeutics, the company that asked the FDA to approve the psychedelic treatment, says the FDA asked for an additional clinical trial. In previous trials, more than 70% of longtime PTSD sufferers no longer met the diagnostic criteria for the disorder after receiving MDMA treatment. Lykos says it will appeal the FDA’s decision.
Looking at Polling
When Vice President Harris entered the race we told you not to look at the polls just yet. You’ve waited long enough, it’s time. And the polls are coming up roses for VP Harris.
National and Battleground Polls
In the 2.5 weeks since Harris entered the presidential race she has closed the gap with Trump. National polls show her even with or slightly ahead of Trump. (Here’s Economist/YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, and SurveyUSA). Battleground state polls show her within two points of Trump/Vance – she’s either slightly ahead or slightly trailing but solidly in the margin of error. (Here’s a battleground poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult).