The News Not Noise Letter: Why Dems Can’t Let This Go
We answer your questions about Biden's fight with his own party. Plus: the GOP approves a platform and France rejects the far-right.
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Today I’m writing about the crisis in the Democratic Party. This is a difficult newsletter to write – in part because some of you tell me any talk of replacing Biden is “noise.” You feel it feeds a narrative fabricated by a bored media, drowning out important coverage of party platforms, Project 2025 (which we covered Friday), and Trump. I understand. Still, I am writing this story because extremely influential Democrats think Biden cannot survive this crisis or beat Trump. And they tell us that they are organizing and preparing for a change at the top of the ticket. That is news, not noise. I think it’s important everyone here understands this dynamic, even if it makes you unhappy or uncomfortable. Even if it doesn’t come to pass. Why isn’t anyone calling for Trump to drop out? Because, unlike with Biden and Democrats, Republican donors and elected officials aren’t pushing for that. It may be frustrating to read this, but we can practice our distress tolerance together (ohm!). What I write here is based on conversations with more than a dozen top Democrats, donors, elected officials, Biden aides, strategists, polling analysts, and would-be contenders. I’ll explain their thinking toward the end of the newsletter. First, we’ll bring you up to speed on what’s happening now.
Here’s the latest:
Biden Defiant: President Biden started the week defiant, publishing a fiery open letter to Congressional Democrats on Monday morning to preempt mass defections and calling MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” where he dared Democrat doubters to “challenge me at the convention.” He’s also keeping a busy schedule to demonstrate his vigor – since the debate he has campaigned in six states. This week he hosts NATO leaders in DC and is promising a full news conference on Thursday. Next week he has scheduled events in Austin and Las Vegas.
Health Issues? Today, in a combative briefing, the White House Press Secretary refused to say why a movement disorder and Parkinson’s specialist visited the White House eight times in eight months and met with the president’s personal doctor. She did say the president hasn’t been diagnosed with Parkinson’s (his February physical says as much). But ever since Axios reported that the president is “dependably engaged”/less fatigued from 10am-4pm, and the president himself told governors he needs to go to sleep by 8pm, concerned observers are wondering about the possibility of a health condition more serious than simply the effects of age. This is one reason the story is not noise.
What Polls Say: Biden has been touting a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll that shows him within two points of Trump in several swing states – and even beating Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin. But there’s a lot of variation among post-debate polls. Other polls show him losing to Trump by 6 points. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Kamala Harris performing better than Biden against Trump by two points.
Defections On Hold: With Congress back in town after their 4th of July recess, Democrats are confabbing. Already, a handful of senior House Democrats told Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries they’d like Biden to go. And Senator Mark Warner is planning to have that discussion with Senate Dems on Tuesday. All sides indicate they won’t act before the President gives a solo news conference at the end of the NATO summit Thursday. After that, will Democratic elected leaders replicate Sen. Barry Goldwater’s Nixon-era trip to the White House – and respectfully tell the president it’s time to go? Or will Biden’s forceful refusal to give in to the critics snuff out the rebellion before the damage gets worse?
Other news headlines:
GOP Platform: The Republican Party approved a platform that, at Trump’s behest, excludes language about a national abortion ban and left out language defining marriage as between a man and a woman. But repro rights advocates are sounding the alarm that the platform leaves a backdoor open for states to enact fetal personhood legislation with the GOP’s tacit OK.
French Elections: In the second round of France’s elections, the center and left banded together to block the far-right, xenophobic, antisemitic National Rally party from winning an outright majority. While many are celebrating, extremists on both sides of the political spectrum made gains and President Macron must figure out how to proceed.
Biden’s Crisis:
Many of you are asking legitimate questions about what’s driving the coverage of Biden’s troubles and whether there really is a way to replace him on the ticket. Here are some answers:
1. It was just one bad debate. Why can’t everyone just let it go?
Can’t Win: Democrats who want to replace President Biden don’t agree with that assessment. They think the debate was undeniable proof of a concern they’ve harbored for months: that Biden isn’t fit to vigorously prosecute the case against a wily and aggressive opponent, Donald Trump. They point out that 72% of registered voters believe Biden shouldn’t run and doesn’t have the capacity to serve. They believe it is worth taking the risk of replacing him at this late stage with a younger, more vigorous candidate who represents change and has a shot at invigorating the young, Black, and sometime voters the President is failing to win over.
Cost Them Congress: The exit-crowd fears the lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s candidacy will so depress turnout that Congressional Democrats will also lose their races, costing the party the Senate, House and White House.
Skeptics Unconvinced: Biden’s post-debate efforts to shore up support with this crowd have backfired. They point to his interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, when Biden couldn’t remember whether he’d watched the debate and responded to a question about Trump’s potential re-election by saying he’d be happy “as long as I gave it my all” – instead of confidently declaring he’d trounce Trump. They’re worried he’s using a teleprompter for most events, which are kept short – but still mumbling and mangling syntax (more than he used to). And that his team is giving questions to interviewers in advance. This may seem like nitpicking they say, but they contend that this is exactly what Donald Trump will do if Biden stays in the race, and fear Trump will convince the public the Democrat’s presidential candidate is a “vegetable.”
All this is another reason this story is not noise.