The News Not Noise Letter: Will the US Elect a Felon President?
How voters are reacting to the Trump conviction. Plus: Biden calls for an end to the war in Gaza; women rise in Mexico, and how do you spell that?
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Here are your headlines:
Ex-President, First-Time Felon: An aggrieved and rambling former President Trump today vowed to “fight” his conviction, telling reporters “if they can do this to me, they can do it to anyone.” He also (falsely) declared, “we are living in a fascist state.” The House Speaker called on the Supreme Court to “step in,” and some Trump supporters are calling for violence. (Heavy caveat: Trump himself has not called for violence and no violence has broken out.) The Trump campaign says they’ve raised almost $35 million since the verdict was read (that’s unverified) and President Biden called Trump’s trashing of the justice system “reckless, dangerous and irresponsible.” He also said that like any American, Trump can and should exercise his right to appeal.
The Facts: Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records with intent to conceal a crime.
The Claims: Trump and his team argue that the trial was a “fraud” for reasons including:
Trump Claim: A biased judge and the Biden administration found him guilty. Fact: He was found guilty by unanimous decision of a jury of his peers. His defense helped decide the makeup of that jury.
Trump Claim: DOJ and Biden brought the case. Fact: Untrue. It was brought by the Manhattan DA who is elected by the voters of NYC.
Trump Claim: Trump wasn’t allowed to testify or call an election expert. Fact: Untrue. The judge limited the topics on which the election expert could speak. Trump chose not to testify and his team chose not to call the election expert.
Counterpoint: Prosecutor and CNN Analyst Elie Honig argues forcefully in this article that Trump does have a strong due process argument to make on appeal.
What’s next? Trump’s sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention and two weeks after the first debate. He can then appeal, which he’s vowed to do.
Can Trump still run for president? Yes. The Constitution doesn’t bar convicted felons from the Oval Office. We’ll break down the impact on the November election at the end of the newsletter, but first more headlines.
Israel/Gaza Updates:
Biden Describes Proposal to End War: President Biden gave remarks from the White House today. After commenting on Trump’s conviction (reflected above) he pivoted to discuss the war in Gaza. It was the President’s most direct and forceful appeal to the people on both sides of the conflict, saying, “It's time for this war to end and for the day after to begin.” He framed the stakes and outlined possible next steps. This kind of “narrative setting” has been missing from the conversation for some time now.
The Deal: The President outlined a new 3-phase hostage/ceasefire deal Israel is offering to Hamas. The deal calls for the release of all living hostages, withdrawal of Israeli troops, a “surge” of humanitarian aid, the eventual release of deceased hostages’ bodies, the establishment of a permanent ceasefire and the reconstruction of Gaza.
The Pain: Biden acknowledged specific harms suffered by each side, including the massacre by “Hamas terrorists,” “Hamas’s sexual violence” and the abduction of more than 250 hostages on 10/7. He said “the Palestinian people have endured sheer hell in this war,” acknowledging that thousands of children have been killed and naming the fire that ripped through a tent city in Rafah. He also identified Hamas as the party most responsible for this pain and said that 1800 aid trucks have entered Gaza in the past 5 days though more is needed.
The Takeaway: Speaking past Prime Minister Netanyahu, Biden addressed the Israeli people, saying that Hamas has been so badly degraded they are “no longer capable” of carrying out another 10/7 and that the best way to achieve enduring security is to push their leaders to end the war now. You can watch his full remarks here.
Hamas: On Thursday Hamas said they would only accept a deal that begins with a ceasefire, i.e. not what’s on the table.
Growing Unrest in Israel: Opposition to PM Netanyahu’s government is intensifying. This week his main rival Benny Gantz proposed a motion to dissolve parliament and call new elections. And hostage families today accused Netanyahu of sacrificing their loved ones for the Rafah operation.
Mexico Elections: Here’s a good news story. Mexico is poised to elect its first female president this Sunday – the two leading candidates are women, and scientists, to boot. The frontrunner is Claudia Sheinbaum, a former governor of Mexico City and a protégée of current President López Obrador. She has a PhD in energy engineering. If elected, she would also be Mexico’s first Jewish president. The other top contender, Xóchitl Gálvez, is a fierce critic of López Obrador. Gálvez is a senator and computer engineer who also previously directed the National Institute for Indigenous Peoples. If you’re in Mexico, don’t forget to vote!
What’s Puszta? Here’s some news that doesn’t suck (unless you were the competition): 12-year-old Bruhat Soma won this year’s Scripps National Spelling Bee in a record-shattering tiebreak round. In only the second-ever “spell-off” speed round, Soma managed to spell 29 difficult words in 90 seconds. The previous record was 22. Some of the mind-bending winning words included puszta, heautophany, caixinha, and ramoneur.
Three of the following words were on the winning list in the 2024 Spelling Bee spell-off. One of them is a nonsense word we made up. Without looking it up, can you spot the fake?
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The Verdict and the Election:
How will Trump’s guilty verdict impact the outcome of the November election? I don’t predict the future. But here’s some data and informed analysis to consider:
