The News Not Noise Letter: Wrong Georgia, Sir
Trump gets his map wrong. Plus: Israel-Hezbollah conflict intensifies, Nebraska has good news for Harris and super-liberal and super-conservative moms have more in common than you think.
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Here are your headlines:
War in the Middle East: More than 490 people were killed and 1,600 injured in Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon on Monday, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. No word how many were Hezbollah or civilians. Israel says it placed 80,000 phone calls warning people to evacuate before striking more than 800 Hezbollah-affiliated targets. They say they targeted weapons caches, launch sites, and drones which Hezbollah embeds in residential neighborhoods. It was the deadliest day of Israeli attacks in Lebanon since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Hezbollah has vowed it will fight a “battle without limits” against Israel.
What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is an Iran-backed Shia Islamist organization and political party in Lebanon. It is not the government of Lebanon. The United States and many other countries consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization.
Background: Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire across the Israel-Lebanon border for decades, and attacks intensified after 10/7. Hezbollah has said it will continue firing rockets into Israel until the war in Gaza ends. More than 60,000 people in northern Israel have been forced from their homes by the rockets, and Israel is making their return a priority. Last week, Israel escalated by detonating electronics owned by Hezbollah members, killing at least 32 people and injuring hundreds more. Hezbollah’s leader called the attacks an act of war.
What Next? The Pentagon says there’s a “potential for a wider regional conflict” and is sending additional US troops to the region, urging de-escalation. Iran, Hezbollah’s sponsor, warned of “dangerous consequences” for Israel’s escalation. Their elite military forces are now banned from using any electronic devices and they’re reportedly looking for spies in their ranks.
Election Updates:
Nebraska: Here’s a big break for the Harris campaign. Nebraska won’t change its electoral college rules to accommodate President Trump, thanks to State Sen. Mike McDonnell, a Democrat-turned-Republican. Most states give all their electoral college votes to the candidate who wins a majority, but Nebraska divides its votes. It has one “blue dot,” a congressional district that is key for a Democratic victory. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump wins North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, they would tie with 269 electoral votes each – everything would come down to that single electoral vote in Nebraska. Republicans have been pressuring Nebraska — and McDonnell in particular — to change the law and make Nebraska a winner-take-all state. McDonnell was their last hope, but in a statement on Monday he said, “Nebraska voters, not politicians of either party, should have the final say on how we pick a President.”
Georgia: Georgia will require counties to hand-count ballots on Election Day, a move that will slow the amount of time it takes to tally results in a critical battleground state. Dozens of local election officials, the secretary of state and the attorney general said the change could cause massive delays and confusion, but Republicans advanced the measure anyway. In 2020, former President Donald Trump falsely claimed that there was voter fraud in Georgia.
Arizona: The Arizona Supreme Court ruled Friday that 98,000 people without confirmed citizenship documents can vote in state and local elections. The voters were improperly registered due to a database glitch. The majority of the voters are in Maricopa County, which has a high percentage of independent and swing voters.
Violent crime is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. Here’s good news for everyone who isn’t trying to panic voters about “chaos and crime”. Violent crime declined in 2023, according to FBI data. Overall, violent crime is down an estimated 3%, while murders and non-negligent manslaughter dropped 12%. Homicides increased nearly 30% during the Covid-19 pandemic, but dropped back to pre-pandemic levels in 2022. New data shows that in 2023 rates fell even lower, at about 364 violent crimes per 100,000 people. The biggest drops happened in cities with more than a million people. Property crime also decreased more than 2%, but motor vehicle theft increased 13%, to the highest levels since 2007. Crime has been a theme of the presidential election.
Campaign Updates:
Trump/Vance? Former president Trump met with farmers in Pennsylvania today and his campaign announced he’ll hold a rally Oct 5 in Butler, PA, where his first assassination attempt took place. JD Vance is taking heat for a photo op blaming VP Harris for driving egg prices up to $4 a dozen — while standing in front of a sign advertising a dozen eggs for $2.99. (To err is human, to commit an unforced error this late in the campaign is staff malpractice.) CNN reports that Trump’s latest financial disclosure forms show Melania Trump was paid $237,500 for making an appearance at a campaign event for her husband. (I’ve never previously heard of a spouse getting paid to stump). A spokesperson with Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics said the campaign should have reported “the source of the payment” to be in compliance with the law. The former First Lady will sit for an interview with Fox News this week. And after VP Kamala Harris’ campaign announced that she won’t be attending the Al Smith dinner, a tradition for presidential nominees that benefits Catholic Charities, Trump today said that Catholics who vote for VP Harris “should have their head examined.” (First it was the Jews, now the Catholics. Who’s next?)
Harris/Walz: VP Kamala Harris said she accepted an offer from CNN for a second debate, but Trump says he will not participate and that holding the debate would be a “very bad thing” for the country. This week Harris is campaigning in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada and plans to deliver an economic speech, filling in more detail on her “opportunity economy” agenda. Today she met United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Washington, D.C. to discuss tensions in the Middle East. Meantime Tim Walz is prepping for his debate against JD Vance, with the role of Vance played by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Bad advertising: Trump ran an ad in Georgia featuring a beautiful mountain backdrop. Only problem? They were the Caucasus Mountains, not the Blue Ridge Mountains. As in, the ones in the country of Georgia, not the state. The campaign was scrambling to get the ad off Facebook as of Monday morning.
Attempted assassination: Prosecutors say Ryan Wesley Routh, the man who had a gun at Trump’s West Palm Beach golf course earlier this month, was attempting to kill Trump. They found a letter from Routh, that reads in part: “This was an assassination attempt on Donald Trump.” The letter was addressed to “The World” and says Trump “ended relations with Iran like a child and now the Middle East has unraveled.” Routh was charged with two firearms offenses and will remain in jail without bail, a judge ruled today. This was the second assassination attempt of Trump, who survived that shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania in July.
Another day, another mass shooting. Four people were killed and 17 injured in a mass shooting in Birmingham, Alabama’s nightlife district over the weekend. Police are offering up to $100,000 in rewards for information on multiple people who opened fire in the area. They believe one victim was targeted and the three others were caught in the crossfire. There have been at least 400 mass shootings so far in 2024.
World Leaders Gather in New York: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York this week in hopes of shoring up assistance for Ukraine ahead of winter fighting. The UNGA is where representatives from 193 countries get together to discuss major issues on peace and security. This year’s theme is ““advancing peace, sustainable development, and human dignity.” Expect lofty declarations on Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan.
Kate Middleton is back. The Princess of Wales made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy. Kate Middleton attended church with Prince William near the family’s Balmoral estate in Scotland. Photos show her smiling in a car on the way to church.
Moms United on Childcare Policy
Lately we’ve been reporting on the realities of parenthood – from the cost of childcare to the choice not to have kids. Given how much political messaging focuses on families and reproduction, we were surprised to find there’s very little polling focused just on moms. (Weird, right?)
We are glad to say we found one group, Count On Mothers (@countonmothers on Instagram) that surveys US moms of all political alignments from “very liberal” to “very conservative.” In their latest survey, they show an astonishing degree of consensus among US moms across the political spectrum on one issue: the need to bring down the cost of childcare.
1. A majority of mothers across the political spectrum support paid family leave, capping the cost of childcare, and universal pre-K at public schools.
Paid family leave for parents of newborns has the support of:
7 in 10 “liberal” or “very liberal” moms
More than 6 in 10 “conservative” or “very conservative” moms
7 in 10 “moderate” moms
Universal pre-K for four-year-olds in public schools has the support of: