The News Not Noise Newsletter: Preparing for Trump 2.0
Trump announces his first picks and policies. Plus: Will Musk get what he paid for? And a surprising finding about the women's vote.
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We’re less than a week out from the election and things are moving fast in Trump world. The president-elect has made multiple significant staffing and policy announcements — revealing his top priorities. We get into that here plus we take a closer look at how his consigliere, Elon Musk, stands to benefit from being a round-the-clock presence at Mar-a-Lago.
Though it’s too soon to dissect exactly which voters and strategies propelled Trump’s victory — full voter data won’t be in for months — narratives are forming so fast, and we want to make you aware of a few salient findings. First, despite coverage that might suggest otherwise, it wasn’t a blowout. About 5 million votes changed parties — only 3% of the electorate. And here is my burning question: Why did Harris perform worse among women than Biden did?
Lots of you are asking how (or whether) Trump’s critics can slow or limit his more extreme policies. That really depends on Congress. If Democrats win control of the House, that’ll give them leverage to slow, amend, or block his more sweeping actions. If Republicans win control of the House, then objectors will have to use the filibuster, courts, state power, and individual/citizen organizing to “resist.” In many cases the final call will be up to the Supreme Court; they have sided with Trump frequently, though not always.
Trump is planning some big changes. This will demand community, organizing, and building the inner reserves to stay calm through some bumpy times. At News Not Noise we will keep bringing you conversations with experts and individuals who can offer guidance. Our next conversation will be a live chat on Substack, Tuesday November 12 at 4pm PT/7pm ET with Andrea Bendewald who runs the Art of Circling. She will talk to us about the practice of circling and building sustainable community.
Here are your headlines:
Trump’s Early Moves: Former president Trump has started revealing who will staff his administration – and his top priorities. Chief among them, mass deportations to be run by Thomas Homan, whom Trump called “The Border Czar." Homan says he will use ICE agents to arrest, detain and deport undocumented people from prisons and workplaces and won’t defer to Democratic governors who try to override his agents. Trump intends to name NY Rep. Elise Stefanik to be US Ambassador to the UN; she is staunchly pro-Israel, opposed to Ukraine aid, backed Trump’s election fraud claims, and prompted the resignations of multiple college presidents in her forceful questioning about campus antisemitism. Trump also declared his intention to shutter the Department of Education and send its $238 billion budget to the states; he’ll need congressional approval to do this. He’s expected to tap immigration hawk Stephen Miller for a top White House role and former NY congressman Lee Zeldin to run — and redirect the efforts of — the Environmental Protection Agency. He’s also demanded Congress allow him to make recess appointments, which would dispense with hearings and official objections from members of Congress. And it’s only Monday! We will get into these choices in more depth in a future newsletter.
No Time For Caution: Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called on Biden and the Democratic Party to do all they can to confirm federal judges and regulators before Trump takes office. Individuals confirmed to these positions, which include some 64 open judicial vacancies, cannot be removed by the incoming president — at least, not under current law.
Swing and a Miss: Data about the election is still coming in — the popular vote won’t be finalized until December — but here are three things to know about Trump’s victory.
Molehill, Not Mountain: First, this bears repeating. This election was not a blowout, as many on both sides seem to be claiming. Trump’s 312 electoral votes actually put his victory in the bottom half of all presidential elections. Obama got more electoral college votes both times, as did Bill Clinton. The last undeniable landslide was four decades ago, when Reagan won 525 electoral votes.
Where are the Women? One seemingly solid bet coming into this election was that women would drive an outpouring of support for VP Kamala Harris to defend abortion after Dobbs. Harris did win women, but by a smaller margin than Biden! At least that’s what the exit polls show. They show that women voted +13 for Clinton; +15 for Biden; +8 for Harris. Latino women voted +44 for Clinton; +39 for Biden; +22 for Harris. Though Trump won a majority of the white women’s vote, exit polls suggest it was slightly down from 2020. We’ll keep you posted on the final numbers and possible explanations for this change.
You Are What You Eat (or Read): Voters were also clearly divided by where they got their news. A survey by Ipsos shows that voters who relied on Fox News, conservative media outlets and social media platforms for their news, were more likely to answer objective questions about crime and inflation incorrectly. They were also far more likely to vote for Trump. Where voters get their information matters, enormously.
Direct Democracy: Voters across the U.S. were given the option to weigh in on dozens of ballot measures. Key decisions involved abortion access, cannabis legalization, and ranked choice voting.
Right to Choose: A record 10 states offered voters the choice to enshrine abortion or reproductive measures in the state constitution — over half of the 18 states that allow citizen-led ballot initiatives.
Seven of those states voted in favor of protecting abortion access: Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New York.
Three failed to pass their measures: South Dakota, Nebraska, and Florida. In Florida’s case, 57% voted in favor of the measure, but the threshold was 60%.
Nebraska also voted in favor of an anti-abortion measure.
High Society: Five states voted on drug legalization.
Nebraska passed two initiatives to legalize medical marijuana and establish a medical cannabis commission.
Both Dakotas and Florida vote to keep marijuana illegal. Once again, a majority of Floridians actually voted yes — but not enough to pass the 60% threshold.
Massachusetts voted not to legalize psychedelic substances.
Voters Rankled: Ranked choice voting is a system that allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference, rather than selecting only one. Proponents argue that it improves representation, reduces extremism, and eliminates the need for multiple elections. Critics dismiss it as overly complicated, expensive, and harmful to incumbent parties. Several states voted on the idea, and it failed in all of them.
Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and South Dakota all rejected some form of ranked choice voting. Alaska seems to have repealed it for general elections. Missouri voted to prohibit it.
Citizens Only: Iowa, Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin all passed measures increasing voter ID requirements or specifying in the state constitution that “only” citizens (rather than “every citizen”) can vote.
What’s Elon Up To Now?
Whispering in the King’s Ear: Perhaps the biggest winner of them all is Elon Musk. “Uncle Elon,” as he is apparently known to at least one of Trump’s grandchildren, spent election night at Mar-a-Lago — and reportedly has barely left since. As a kind of “shadow vice-president,” Musk could wield significant power, especially if the oldest-ever president-elect’s limited attention span and infamous propensity for avoiding policy work leads him to cede important duties to chosen lackeys.
Filling the Ranks: Even if Elon Musk believes all the right-wing memes he’s been tweeting – and amplifying – across X, it’s also the case that he is the human embodiment of conflict of interest. The richest man in the world derived his wealth thanks to wildly lucrative government contracts, and is now, by multiple accounts, at Trump’s side weighing in on everything from staffing choices, to foreign policy. (He was present for at least two presidential calls with foreign leaders, including Ukraine’s Zelenskyy.) Crucially, he is in the position to reward or punish the regulators who have power over his businesses and those of his competitors.
You Scratch My Back…
