The War Is Going Great, According to Those Who Started It
Promises outpace readiness. Price of war reaches the pump. US death toll rises. Why synagogues need security. And an interview with Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin.
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We are back, and the news did not slow down. Before we get into it — I want to remind you that the news has a negativity bias. Paying attention to war, terrorism, and difficult topics is important, but can be hard on our nervous systems. Allow yourself grace.
By now you’re likely aware of the attack on Temple Israel in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. What you might not know is that when staff raced to evacuate children from the synagogue preschool, they ran across the street to the Shenandoah Country Club. That’s an Iraqi Christian and Chaldean community institution. The club opened its doors, providing a frightened Jewish community food, a gathering place, and safety. It became the family reunification site, the law enforcement staging area, and today, the location of Shabbat services while Temple Israel remains a crime scene. As Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin says in today’s interview, the Jewish community “will not forget who stretched out their arm to give them help when they needed it.”
One reminder that the hate and polarization we see on the national stage is at odds with how we actually live in our communities — where you can still find the best of us, holding the door open for a stranger in crisis.
A community note: I first learned about the the Shenandoah Club’s generosity because several members of this community attend Temple Israel synagogue in Michigan. Our thoughts are with you tonight.
Today’s guest, Sen. Elissa Slotkin, sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Here she addresses the rise in antisemitism and the impact of the Iran war at home. She spoke to me from the Shenandoah Country Club, where she will attend Shabbat services tonight.
In today’s newsletter, Defense Secretary Hegseth says victory is near as the war expands and Iran raises the stakes. There’s pain at the pump as the markets brace. Trump critics question the plan — or lack thereof. We also cover the targeted attack on Temple Israel and share more about the community response. The Senate passed a major housing bill, TSA lines are getting longer. And the UFC does a “gladiator style” collab with the FBI; and it’s Oscars weekend!
Iran Updates
A note: We start with the death toll, to keep the human impact of war front and center.
Escalation and Uncertainty: Trump’s ongoing war with Iran has now resulted in over 2,000 deaths — 1,300 in Iran, over 700 in Lebanon, 12 in Israel, 13 US troops, and dozens in Gulf nations across the region. Roughly 140 US troops have been wounded, several seriously. And with no clear end in sight, the economic toll is rising alongside the human one: As of Friday, oil prices have risen over 40% since the start of the war, and analysts are warning further increases could lead to a major global recession.
All Brawn: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday said this would be the most intense and lethal day of the war so far. He claimed the military has struck over 15,000 “enemy targets” and that victory is near. The US military is sending thousands of marines and multiple warships, including an amphibious assault ship, to the Middle East. Hegseth also said the volume of Iran’s retaliatory attacks have collapsed by over 90%, though Iran continues to fire dozens of drones and missiles daily at targets throughout the region.
New Target: Trump on Friday said the US “obliterated every MILITARY target” on Kharg Island. The island is home to refineries that process 90% of Iran’s oil. “For reasons of decency,” Trump wrote, “I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure.” He warned that he would “immediately reconsider this” should Iran “do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Concept of a Plan: Lawmakers this week emerged from a closed-door briefing with administration officials furious at what Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) called “incoherent and incomplete” war plans. According to Murphy, military officials said they are not targeting nuclear sites, nor seeking regime change — a notable disconnect from two of the administration’s stated goals for the war. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) warned “the Trump administration has no plan in Iran.” Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said “we keep hearing new reasons for war with Iran — none convincing.” Though Congressional Republicans are broadly supportive of the war, when asked the war’s objective and what defines a “win” they punt to the White House. We’ve reported before that MAGA is divided. But it appears Trump is losing one important ally: Joe Rogan called the war a “betrayal,” saying Trump “ran on no more wars … and [now] we have one that we can’t even really clearly define why we did it.”
Pesky Journalists: CNN recently zeroed in on one of the war’s most consequential and foreseeable challenges: whether the US was prepared for Iran to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil. The network reported that the Pentagon “significantly underestimated” Iran’s readiness to close the Strait of Hormuz. Hegseth on Friday called it “fake news” adding, “The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better.” Ellison last week said he’d ensure CNN would remain as independent as CBS. (One might ask for his definition of “independent” before taking solace in that…)
Deadly Mistake: US Central Command on Friday confirmed that all six US crew members aboard a refueling plane died when it crashed on Thursday. The Pentagon said the crash was in “friendly airspace” and “not due to hostile or friendly fire.” A second plane involved in the incident landed safely. The KC-135 refueling aircraft was last produced in the 1960s and has a history of fatal accidents. These six deaths bring the US death toll to 13. This is at least the fourth aircraft lost during the war. It’s a reminder that wars also kill through error, strain, and attrition.
Not Backing Down: Iran state TV read a statement attributed to the new supreme leader on Thursday. The statement promised revenge for those killed and showed little sign the regime is ready to end the war; it also suggested Iran is considering “opening other fronts.” Iranian leaders are reportedly insisting airstrikes stop before beginning any discussions about an offramp. Their reported conditions for a peace deal — which the Trump administration is unlikely to accept — include guarantees of no future attacks, reparations for damages, and for the US to disengage with the region.
Where’s the Supreme Leader: There are questions about the status of the new supreme leader, who hasn’t been seen in public since the attack that killed his father and predecessor. Hegseth on Friday claimed he is “wounded and likely disfigured.” Hegseth also insisted the nation’s leaders are “desperate and hiding” like “rats.”
Asymmetric Warfare: An Iran-linked hacker group has taken responsibility for a major cyberattack on Stryker, a US healthcare technology company that services over 150 million patients. The attack, which the group said was revenge for the strike on an Iranian girl’s school, disabled some equipment.
Read the Room: This week major companies — UPS, Maersk, Cathay Pacific — began adding energy surcharges to compensate for the rising price of fuel. If you drive, you’re likely seeing cost increases at the pump. Trump seemed oblivious to consumer impact when he bragged on Truth Social that “the United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” And then repeated the message to reporters. Democrats were quick to note that “we” doesn’t include the everyday American. “Trump doesn’t mind your pain at the pump,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) responded. The American Petroleum Institute said that “energy market volatility does not benefit anyone, including producers.” The clear political risk for Trump: war is easier to sell in theory than at the pump.
The Point of No Return: Oil prices on Friday once again crossed $100 per barrel, almost 50% more than before the war, as investor worries grow despite US assurances and countermeasures. The International Energy Agency on Thursday warned oil markets are facing the “largest supply disruption in history.” A statement attributed to Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that “the lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used.” Traffic through this vital waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil usually flows, has practically halted. When asked on Friday about the situation, Defense Secretary Hegseth said the military has “been dealing with it” and said people “don’t need to worry.” Another military official said they “have a plan for every option here.” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) maintains that the administration doesn’t “know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgivable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.” Many analysts warn it will take weeks or even months to fully restart halted production; one said that “at this stage, even if the conflict ended today and tankers ramped back up to 100% Hormuz flow, it would still take months to return to anything resembling normality.”
Sticky Situation: At least 16 commercial vessels, including oil tankers, have been attacked in and around the Strait since the war began. Iran has reportedly begun laying mines in the Strait and mines are the point of no return. Laying them takes hours. Clearing them, experts say, takes months and is nearly impossible under fire. Defense Secretary Hegseth denied Iran is mining the Strait and the White House on Friday claimed the military has destroyed 30 Iranian mine-laying vessels. Trump wrote that he expects any mines to be “removed, IMMEDIATELY!” Meanwhile, the DOD last year decommissioned all four of its minesweepers in the Middle East, replacing them with a different kind of ship with minesweeping capabilities — one that, unlike the retired vessels, has never been used in combat.
Empty Promises: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday said the US, “perhaps with an international coalition,” will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as it militarily possible.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Thursday confirmed the US is “not ready” to do that yet. Notice the gap between confident promises and actual readiness.
Unprecedented Measures: Members of the International Energy Agency this week unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves — the largest emergency release in history. For perspective, this accounts for less than a month’s worth of the oil that flowed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war. One analyst from ING warned that “only military de-escalation can drive crude [oil prices] sustainably lower.” It’s a stopgap, not a solution.
Global Impact: For much of Asia, the oil shock is already a humanitarian issue. Hundreds of millions of people across the continent, which imports more oil from the Middle East than anywhere else, are already struggling with widespread fuel shortages. Pakistan has closed schools, South Korea implemented its first fuel price cap in decades, the Philippines placed some workers on four-day workweeks, Thailand implemented work-from-home measures; people throughout the region have been forced to queue for hours, multiple times per day, for fuel.
Enemy of My Enemy: In a move that raised eyebrows among Ukraine’s allies, the Trump Treasury Department on Thursday temporarily removed some sanctions on Russian oil. They say it’s an effort to control spiraling prices. The sanctions are in place to limit Russia’s ability to fund its ongoing war against Ukraine. Now Putin is calling on the US to permanently lift the energy sanctions. Multiple European countries criticized the move; Germany’s chancellor called it “wrong” and said Germany will “not allow ourselves to be deterred or distracted” from pressuring Putin “by the war with Iran.”
Going Solo? Multiple European countries have reportedly opened negotiations with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. That suggests allies are moving to protect their own interests as they lose confidence in Washington’s ability to manage the crisis.
Warning Signs: The Commerce Department on Friday released revised economic data, much of it worrying. GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025 was just 0.7%, half the agency’s previous figure and far below estimates. One analyst called this downward revision “a gut check going into this energy crunch” and warned the new numbers suggest “the economy entered this crisis weaker than hoped.” Which implies we are headed into an energy shock, on shaky footing.
Jewish Community Under Threat: The FBI is investigating an attack on Temple Israel, a synagogue outside Detroit, as a “targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.” Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer called it an “antisemetic” act of “hate, plain and simple.” On Thursday, 41-year-old Ayman Mohamad Ghazali drove a vehicle into Temple Israel, one of the largest Reform synagogues in the country. Ghazali had purchased thousands of dollars of fireworks before the attack; fireworks and gasoline were in the back of the vehicle, which caught fire. After being confronted by security, Ghazali died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. One guard is being treated for injuries; according to Sen Slotkin he was the head of the synagogue security. Dozens of law enforcement officers were hospitalized due to smoke inhalation. No staff or children were harmed in the attack.
The Security Reality: According to Rabbi Jen Lader, staff had trained for situations just like this, and despite the “sheer terror” of the attack managed to evacuate over 100 children from a preschool attached to the synagogue. One mother said her son’s “teachers made it as calm as … they could for them. Told them it was a fire drill and … got them out safely. That’s something we will forever be grateful for.” Rabbi Lader said it is “a nightmare that we have to have an armed full-time security team in order for people to feel safe coming to synagogue.” The Jewish Federations of North America reports that security costs the Jewish community $765 million every year. The Rabbi warned, “American Judaism is such these days that every synagogue is a target.”
The Suspect: Authorities are still searching for a specific motive. The FBI on Friday said the suspect had no criminal history. He was born in Lebanon and was a naturalized US citizen. Last week four of his family members — two brothers, a niece, and a nephew — were killed by an Israeli strike while breaking their Ramadan fast.
Coming Together: We reported earlier that children and staff fleeing the gunfire took refuge at the Shenandoah Country Club across the street. It is connected to the Chaldean Area Chamber of Commerce; Chaldeans are a Christian community with origins in the Middle East. “We feel this moment deeply,” the Chamber of Commerce said, “because the Jewish community has long been a valued partner and friend to the Chaldean community.” Other faith groups also expressed sympathy and solidarity. The Imams Council of Michigan condemned the attack “in the strongest possible terms” and said it “stands in full solidarity with all impacted.”
Another Attack: A man on Thursday stormed into a classroom at Old Dominion University and opened fire, killing one and injuring multiple others before being subdued and killed by ROTC students. The suspect, Mohamed Bailor Jalloh, was a naturalized citizen born in Sierra Leone. He was previously a member of the National Guard, and was convicted in 2016 of trying to “provide material support” for ISIS. He was sentenced to 11 years in prison and released in December 2024. The FBI says the shooting is being investigated as an act of terrorism.
Here Are Your (Other) Headlines
Homes Coming: It’s not all bad news! The Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly passed the biggest housing bill in 36 years. The bipartisan legislation comes from an unexpected duo – Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Tim Scott (R-SC). It includes dozens of provisions to boost America’s housing supply, make it easier for individuals to buy homes, and restrict corporations from owning large numbers of single-family homes. Sen. Warren said the bill was motivated by “the deep-seated belief that it is families who should live in homes.… They’re not there simply as investment vehicles for Wall Street private equity.” Trump has yet to comment on the bill; earlier this week he reportedly told House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) that “no one gives a [bleep] about housing.”
Buried in the Bill: The bill also bans the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, through 2030. The Fed has argued that a CBDC would be safer than any other digital assets, like notoriously volatile cryptocurrencies; it also argued a CBDC would make international payments easier and improve banking access for low-income households. Republicans have worked for months to ban a CBDC, claiming it could be used to surveil Americans. The banking industry also opposes a CBDC, calling it “unnecessary.”
Still Shut: TSA workers will miss their first full paycheck on Friday after the Senate once again failed to end the ongoing DHS shutdown the day before. Almost one month into the shutdown, Democrats and Republicans are still deadlocked; Democratic lawmakers say the White House has refused to agree to meaningful changes to immigration enforcement. TSA staff have been known to call in sick when they go unpaid (can you blame them?), contributing to longer security line wait times at some airports.
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